The college football world rolls on with another exciting slate this Saturday! Our experts are here with their best college football expert picks against the spread for Week 6. Keep reading for their plays, but if you’re new to things and need some college football betting advice, check out our guide to college football betting strategy — or tail our free college football expert picks.
College Football Expert Picks Against the Spread: Week 6
College Football Expert Picks Against the Spread: Week 6
UCF @ Florida Expert Pick Against the Spread
Hey, what’s up, The Profit Isaiah here. It feels weird that the UCF Knights are road favorites over the Florida Gators, but it’s 2024, and that’s the world we live in. Florida head coach Billy Napier is on his way out, but until they let him go, fading the Gators will prove to be a profitable strategy.
The Knights enter this game with one of the best offenses in the country. They rank 37th in offensive expected points added (EPA) per play, which is impressive. They’re powered by an elite rushing attack led by quarterback KJ Jefferson and running backs RJ Harvey and Peny Boone.
It’s a short trip to the Swamp for UCF. While the Gators haven’t been as bad as their record suggests, a lot of that actually falls on the shoulders of Napier, who doesn’t call games that well. The 2-2 Gators have only beaten FCS Samford and Mississippi State.
UCF is coming off an embarrassing 48-21 loss to Colorado. But even though they lost the game, the Knights outgained the Buffs, 461 to 418. They just turned the ball over four times. They can’t afford to have those kinds of miscues again this week, but, fortunately, they’ll face a Florida team that ranks 122nd in average turnover margin (-1.3).
This game is a pick’em across the market, but I’m fine with taking UCF -1 for the extra squeeze of value you’ll be able to extract. While this is a tough road game for a Big 12 team, Jefferson is a former SEC quarterback who has been to — and won in — the Swamp before. He did so just last season in a 39-36 overtime victory. Have faith in him and the Knights to pull this one out.
College Football Expert Pick Against the Spread for Week 6: UCF -1 -110 at Caesars
Miami-California A&M Expert Pick Against the Spread
Hey, Ben Rasa here. It is not Alabama-Georgia from last week, but this late-night ACC clash definitely should get your attention. California being in the ACC is still weird, but that’s another story for another time. They are 3-1 with a home game against what looks to be the class of the conference in Miami. Traveling this far west to a tricky spot like Cal is far from ideal, however.
There are better betting games on the board, but if you want action in prime time, it’s Cal or pass. Finding 10.5 is crucial, as that half a point is valuable and means even more in this type of game environment. The total is a reasonable 53.5, which helps Cal because the more this game stays in check, the more likely the Bears stay in it. Miami should go on the road and get a win, but it will not be by double digits.
I’m very high on Miami this year, and so far so good. They survived a Hail Mary from Virginia Tech last week and remain undefeated on the year.
Miami quarterback Cam Ward has put himself in Heisman contention under center, and he has an offensive line and skill position players to continue to give him plenty of support.
That will come in handy against a Cal defense that has shown itself to be formidable.
Cal is a 3-1 team that is leaning on the defense to keep it in games. It is top 10 in the country in points allowed and opponent completion percentage and 14th in sack percentage, which shows the talent of that front. It’s a big step up in competition from the likes of Auburn and Florida State, but at home at night is as best of circumstance one could ask for. Cal will likely try to shorten this game, lean on the defense and get to the fourth quarter with a chance.
There are better betting games on the board, but if you want action in prime time, it’s Cal or pass. Finding 10.5 is crucial, as that half a point is valuable and means even more in this type of game environment. The total is a reasonable 53.5, which helps Cal because the more this game stays in check, the more likely the Bears stay in it. Miami should go on the road and get a win, but it will not be by double digits.
College Football Expert Pick Against the Spread for Week 6: California +10.5 -112 at BetRivers
