The main Week 1 CFB slate is here, and that means a massive number of games on the docket. There are some monster FCS vs. FBS spreads, but there are also a handful of marquee games to break down. With so many options, the betting card is full of potential plays for this first full Saturday slate. Dive into our college football betting strategy guide to help you uncover sharp bets on your own! Now let’s break down our college football expert picks for Week 1’s Saturday games.
Quick tip: With so many games in Week 1, staying on top of the latest news and line movement is essential. Capturing closing line value or staying informed can be the difference between a winning and losing week. If you want to follow all my bets, sign up for my OddsShopper Marketplace package, where you’ll find some of the most consistent college football expert picks in the industry.
College Football Expert Picks Today for Week 1: Saturday, Aug. 31
Best Game: Clemson-Georgia | College Football Expert Picks Today
This game is in Atlanta, and it is a massive one with playoff implications right in Week 1. Georgia may not be the defending national champion, but it is in some ways the team to beat heading into the season. It returns Carson Beck at quarterback and a cast of weapons with all the talent on this Georgia offense. One small benefit of being injured last year was a ton of guys got reps who now step into larger roles. Even with some losses to the NFL, Georgia’s offensive line might be the best in the country, and Clemson will have its hands full slowing them.
Dabo Swinney is trying to restore order after a bad 9-4 season last year. Cade Klubnik hasn’t panned out as planned and will need to be efficient to keep pace with Georgia’s offense. He has Antonio Williams on the outside, and that could emerge as a primary weapon for the Tigers this year. Defensively, Clemson reloaded, but good luck replacing Jeremiah Trotter and Nate Wiggins, who were two staples on that side of the ball. Overall, Clemson will have a solid defense, but the secondary is a little concerning after some of the losses.
Clemson is taking some money, as this has dropped to -11.5 in some spots. I would lean towards Georgia at that number, but I am more interested in going over 48.5 for this game. Georgia’s offense can and will have success forcing Klubnik and company to keep pace. Any turnovers or explosive plays work in our favor, and both could be on the menu here. Pace-wise, it’s not the best environment, but with the talent on both offenses, this should into the 50s on Saturday.
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College Football Expert Pick for Week 1: Clemson-Georgia Over 48.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Live Dog: West Virginia (+255) vs. Penn State
It is going to take a big-time effort for West Virginia to take down Penn State, but at +255 it’s a spot to work with. West Virginia was 9-4 last year and brings back dual-threat Garrett Greene to lead the offense. He works behind an elite offensive line that returns 100-plus starts and a few transfers to provide depth. On defense the front seven looks solid with a lot of returning production, but the secondary could have questions. The good news is that, even if it’s the weak point of the defense, is Penn State built to exploit it?
To answer that question, we have to turn to Drew Allar, who is back under center once again. He was extremely efficient with 25 touchdowns to just two interceptions, but in the biggest games he was far less effective. This game is in Morgantown, which is a big piece of this puzzle. Last year Penn State only played four road games: Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio State and Maryland. There is no shame in losing to Ohio State in Columbus, but like most teams, the Nittany Lions are far less effective away from home. This line has come down in favor of West Virginia, making a higher-risk/higher-reward spot like the moneyline all the more appealing. At just north of 2.5-1, West Virginia in front of the home crowd can give Penn State all it can handle and possibly pull the upset.
College Football Expert Pick for Week 1: West Virginia (+255 at FanDuel)
Best College Football Expert Pick: UMass (-2.5) vs. Eastern Michigan
I have UMass at -1.5, which I dropped in Discord earlier this week, but I still like this inside 3 as long as the juice isn’t crazy. Unlike the first two games that have national importance, this one is way under the radar. Sometimes those are the best games to target, and UMass is being undervalued.
The Minutemen only won three games last year, but they showed some promise and now bring in real talent via the portal. Several transfers from big-name schools help bolster both sides of the ball, especially defense, which is sorely needed. They return Taisun Phommachanh at quarterback and Anthony Simpson, along with several new pass catchers, to make this a much more potent attack. Defensively they can’t get worse, and transfers from all over the country should help. They have six new guys in the secondary to throw at the problem, and it should be much improved off a year where they gave up almost 40 points per game.
Eastern Michigan also tried to bring in some guys to fill the void via the portal but did a worse job. It was 6-7 last year but lost a ton of production offensively, including basically all its quarterbacks and backfield. Cole Snyder comes in from Buffalo/Rutgers, and although he has experience, he has not been overly convincing. Defensively Eastern Michigan lost two All-MAC linebackers who combined for over 270 tackles last year. You simply can’t replace that kind of production, and I worry about how this defense looks. With one team on the rise and the other full of question marks, jump on UMass at home to grab an early-season win.
College Football Expert Pick for UMass-Eastern Michigan Week 1: UMass -2.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
