Conference games are underway in college football, which means teams that have gotten off to slow starts now have something to play for. We are also starting to get the CFB Playoff picture into focus as many teams look to put themselves in position to make the postseason. For betting purposes, it’s a card full of potential plays and value that we want to attack. With that in mind, let’s dive into some Saturday college football Week 6 expert picks.
If you need more college football betting advice, check out our guide to college football +EV betting.
Tails by OddsShopper and my Discord channel are also great options for finding the best bets for this college football slate. We have a great community all helping to a common goal, which is uncovering value and cashing tickets. It’s a fun way to enjoy the games, and if you haven’t seen it for yourself, hop on in with the code JAZZRAZ50 for 50% off your first week or month.
College Football Expert Picks Today for Week 6: Saturday, Oct. 5
Best Game: Miami -10.5 at California | College Football Expert Picks Today
It is not Alabama-Georgia from last week, but this late-night ACC clash definitely should get your attention. California being in the ACC is still weird, but that’s another story for another time. They are 3-1 with a home game against what looks to be the class of the conference in Miami. Traveling this far west to a tricky spot like Cal is far from ideal, however.
I’m very high on Miami this year, and so far so good. They survived a Hail Mary from Virginia Tech last week and remain undefeated on the year. Cam Ward has put himself in Heisman contention under center, and he has an offensive line and skill position players to continue to give him plenty of support. That will come in handy against a Cal defense that has shown itself to be formidable.
Cal is a 3-1 team that is leaning on the defense to keep it in games. It is top 10 in the country in points allowed and opponent completion percentage and 14th in sack percentage, which shows the talent of that front. It’s a big step up in competition from the likes of Auburn and Florida State, but at home at night is as best of circumstance one could ask for. Cal will likely try to shorten this game, lean on the defense and get to the fourth quarter with a chance.
There are better betting games on the board, but if you want action in prime time, it’s Cal or pass. Finding 10.5 is crucial, as that half a point is valuable and means even more in this type of game environment. The total is a reasonable 53.5, which helps Cal because the more this game stays in check, the more likely the Bears stay in it. Miami should go on the road and get a win, but it will not be by double digits.
Live Dog: SMU +205 at Louisville | College Football Expert Picks
Both these teams are 1-0 heading into another ACC matchup. SMU played quarterback roulette early in the year but seems to have settled in on dual threat Kevin Jennings, and the returns have been positive. They hung 66 points on TCU and then added 42 more in a demolishing of Florida State last time out. SMU still has what it takes to disrupt in this conference and have been on them the majority of weeks this season.
Louisville is a mystery team that had two cupcake opponents before beating Georgia Tech and then dropping a road game to Notre Dame. What’s difficult to know is how good exactly this team is, as a few data points show them to have played against inferior competition. Last week, three turnovers doomed Louisville, but the offense continued to produce. Probably the biggest concern for Louisville is consistently giving up a high completion rate to opposing quarterbacks, and SMU could look to exploit that. Overall, there are more questions than answers with this Cardinals team, which is why this is a high-variance game.
Going north of 2-1 on the moneyline makes sense here as SMU has the talent to beat just about anyone. On the flip side, if it turns out the Cardinals are as good as they have looked at times, I would rather have lower unit allocation on a moneyline then trying to get 6.5 points. With Jennings under center, SMU is finally playing like the team many believed in before the season, and this is a great price if you are willing to roll the dice.
Best College Football Week 6 Pick: Navy -9.5 (-110)
Right off the bat, when Armed Forces academies square up, a lot of logic goes out the window. You get two teams that both run triple-option offenses, and that makes for a crazy, bad-tempo situation. However, this year it seems pretty clear that Air Force is on the outside looking in, and I do not understand how they hang in this game against Navy.
Air Force might have been my favorite team to bet on in the entire country last year. Unfortunately, that entire unit is gone, and recruiting and hitting the portal aren’t exactly easy options for service academies.
They have a completely rebuilt offensive line and defense, and they aren’t able to run the scheme as planned. The Falcons are 1-3 on the year, with the lone win against FCS Merrimack.
Navy, on the other hand, might be the best of the bunch, sitting at 4-0, including a win over Memphis. They’ve scored at least 38 points in every game and have margins of victory of 28, 27, 12 and 23. Quarterback Blake Horvath is a problem for opposing defenses, as he’s averaging a mind-boggling 9.6 yards per carry on nearly 50 attempts. Add in 14.5 yards per pass attempt, and it’s clear that he has this offense firing on all cylinders.
I’ll keep this pretty concise, as Navy simply has the advantage on basically every unit against an Air Force squad that is in rebuild mode. The tempo will crawl, but it will not matter once Navy gets up.
