Has Clemson’s era of dominance come to an end? Preseason analysis shows that some have Florida State over them, although the ‘Noles may struggle in out-of-conference play with a tough matchup against LSU. Let’s dive into the college football win total odds for the ACC to make some predictions and identify the best picks.
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College Football Predictions 2023: ACC Win Total Odds & Picks
ACC Win Total Betting Odds
Don't Write Off Clemson Yet
With Mike Norvell's Florida State Seminoles trending up, it's easier than ever to overlook Dabo Swinney's Clemson Tigers. But even if Florida State can challenge Clemson for ACC dominance, it's sharper to buy the dip on the Tigers than to overpay for the Seminoles. Both teams currently own a win total of either 9.5 or 10. I'm most interested in the +105 (48.8%) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Tigers will move on from quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, who just transferred to Oregon State, and instead start Cade Klubnik. Klubnik took over the starting job after Clemson's home loss to South Carolina. Klubnik looked great in the ACC Championship against North Carolina: he completed 83.3% of his passes for 279 yards and a score, adding another score with his legs.
A few other factors make me feel confident about buying the dip on Clemson. Last year's struggles prompted Swinney to bring in offensive coordinator Garrett Riley from TCU, and he should help turn this offense around much as he did in Fort Worth last season. The offensive line returns four starters while the defense returns eight. Clemson's days of getting a surefire bid to the College Football Playoff may be over, but this team should still contend for 10 or 11 regular-season wins.
Clemson's schedule isn't all that difficult, either. Clemson will host Charleston Southern, Florida Atlantic, Florida State, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and North Carolina, meaning three of their toughest opponents would have to pull off the upset in Death Valley. Clemson will visit Duke, Syracuse, Miami, NC State and South Carolina. I don't have faith in the other ACC programs, and I doubt Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler can catch lightning in a bottle two years in a row.
ACC Win Total Prediction: Clemson Over 10 +105 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
Are North Carolina and Drake Maye Still Underrated?
The second-best returning ACC quarterback by passing efficiency alone, Drake Maye, will lead the North Carolina Tar Heels again next season. The books are high on the Tar Heels, but I'm not sure if they're high enough. We can buy North Carolina to win at least nine games at odds of +108 (48.1%) via FanDuel Sportsbook, which should yield a profitable return.
The Tar Heels should have another electric offense on the field this year. Although Maye lost his leading receiver, Josh Downs, to the 2023 NFL Draft, he'll get some exciting replacements. Devontez Walker, a big-bodied transfer out of Kent State who recorded the second-most receiving yards in the MAC last year, and Nate McCollum, a shifty slot receiver who just led Georgia Tech in receiving yards, join Maye in Chapel Hill. Offensive lineman Willie Lampkin transfers over from Coastal Carolina and will help keep Maye upright.
But the offense wasn't North Carolina's problem last year -- the defense was. North Carolina ranked 114th in yards allowed per play (6.1) and 111th in yards allowed per game (444.3). Fortunately, defensive coordinator Gene Chizik will have several transfers to work with, including four defensive backs. The addition of linebacker Amari Gainer should help the Tar Heels generate pressure in the backfield as well.
North Carolina's schedule isn't all that tough. North Carolina will host Appalachian State, Minnesota, Syracuse, Miami, Virginia, Campbell and Duke with a neutral-site game against South Carolina in Charlotte. North Carolina will visit Pitt, Georgia Tech, Clemson and NC State. If Maye stays healthy, the Tar Heels should be favored for all but their road trip to Death Valley, so getting them to clear the nine-win threshold in the plus money should prove sharp.
ACC Win Total Prediction: North Carolina Over 8.5 +108 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
