As July steadily moves along, we’re approaching the start of the 2023 college football season. Few conferences have made more headlines than the Big 12, which has added four new programs this year but will lose Texas and Oklahoma next year. In what’s sure to be a chaotic campaign for a bloated conference, things could get interesting. Let’s dive into the college football win total odds for the Big 12 to make some predictions and identify the best picks.
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College Football Predictions 2023: Big 12 Win Total Odds & Picks (July 11)
Big 12 Win Total Betting Odds
You Shouldn't Fade Mike Gundy Yet
The Oklahoma State Cowboys had a tough 2022. After a 5-0 start, the Cowboys finished the year at 6-7. Starting quarterback Spencer Sanders decided to transfer out as well, but his 128.3 passing efficiency rating isn't something the Cowboys should miss. The Cowboys will likely begin the season by starting graduate transfer Alan Bowman, who owns a 139.5 passing efficiency grade through five seasons. Redshirt freshman Garrett Rangel and true freshman Zane Flores may push for the job if Bowman struggles early.
Oklahoma State struggled defensively last year, so head coach Mike Gundy adjusted in the offseason. Incoming defensive coordinator Bryant Nardo will replace Derek Mason, whose unit ranked 92nd in yards allowed per play (5.8) and 118th in yards allowed per game (452.8). Nardo just curbed Gannon University's yards allowed per game from 393.3 to 287.4 last season. He'll take over a unit led by two preseason All-Big 12 selections, linebacker Collin Oliver, who led the team in sacks last year and won Defensive Freshman of the Year in 2021, and safety Kendal Daniels, who trailed only Jason Taylor II in tackles by a defensive back and interceptions.
The rapidly changing Big 12 landscape will benefit few teams more than Oklahoma State next season. Oklahoma State will host Central Arkansas, South Alabama, Kansas State, Kansas, Cincinnati, Oklahoma and BYU next year. The Cowboys will also visit Arizona State, Iowa State, West Virginia, UCF and Houston. Oklahoma State has gone 72-37-3 in Stillwater under Mike Gundy, giving the Cowboys the best winning percentage at home of all FBS teams through that span, so I feel confident about penciling them in for five home wins. Winnable road games against transitioning Iowa State, West Virginia and Houston programs should help them get over the top.
This pick ultimately comes down to whether you have confidence in Mike Gundy to adjust to the changing Big 12 landscape. Gundy's Cowboys have won at least seven regular-season games in all but five of his 17 seasons at the helm. Three of those misses came in his first three years with the program. Gundy managed to win seven games with a bad Spencer Sanders and a revolving door of backups once he got hurt, and with no Baylor, Texas, TCU or Texas Tech on the schedule, look for the Cowboys to capitalize against some of the conference's weaker programs. We can buy Oklahoma State to surpass the seven-win market at odds of +110 (47.6%) at BetMGM.
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Big 12 Win Total Prediction: Oklahoma State Over 6.5 Wins +110 for 2 Units at BetMGM
