With months remaining before the 2023 college football season gets underway, some value still remains unexploited on the futures markets. We can still find plenty of value lingering on the win total markets across different sportsbooks. Let’s dive into the college football win total odds for the Big Ten to make some predictions and identify the best picks.
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College Football Predictions 2023: Big Ten Win Total Odds & Picks (June 28)
Big Ten Win Total Betting Odds
Tune Out the Iowa Hype
I simply do not have any idea how the Iowa Hawkeyes can get to nine wins next year. While adding quarterback Cade McNamara is an upgrade over Spencer Petras (albeit not a huge one -- McNamara isn't very mobile and ranked a mediocre 56th in passing efficiency as a starter in 2021), the problem's root cause remains. Offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, son of longtime head coach Kirk Ferentz, is not good at his job. The Hawkeyes ranked 117th in points per game (18.6) last year. That number doesn't tell the full story, especially since Iowa's defense often put points on the board by itself.
Iowa's offense is terrible and will remain terrible next year, and although the defense is great, it suffered some major losses. Ferentz has served as offensive coordinator since 2017. The Hawkeyes ranked 126th in yards per play (4.2) in 2022, 121st (4.5) in 2021, 78th in 2020 (5.3), 84th in 2019 (5.4) 86th in 2018 (5.2) and 103rd in 2017 (5). Even their best performances in the metric rank well below the NCAA average. Worse, the offense just lost leading receiver Sam LaPorta. The defense also lost leading tackler and defensive anchor Jack Campbell along with star cornerback Riley Moss, safety Kaevon Merriweather and edge rusher Luke Van Ness.
Getting to nine wins will prove incredibly difficult this year. The lack of defensive continuity could make the early going difficult, and the offense probably won't be of much help. The Hawkeyes will host Utah State, Western Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers and Illinois this year. They'll play Iowa State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Nebraska on the road. Penn State and Wisconsin are almost certain losses, and from there, we just need this historically inconsistent offense to drop two more games. Those could come against anyone, but Iowa State, Minnesota, Illinois and Nebraska are all strong candidates.
Big Ten Win Total Prediction: Iowa Under 8.5 -158 for 1.5 Units at FanDuel
Rutgers Doesn't Suck That Much
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights went an unspectacular 4-8 last year, which is the same number of wins the books project them for in 2023. However, head coach Greg Schiano has kept this team above the 3.5-win threshold for the last two seasons. He has failed to clear this mark just three times in his 14 years at the helm of the Scarlet Knights, and one of those failures came in the shortened 2020 season. He still led Rutgers to three wins that year, notching their most conference wins since the 2012 season.
Rutgers should fare a lot better on offense next year. The Scarlet Knights couldn't move the ball, so Schiano brought in his old offensive coordinator, Kirk Ciarrocca, to fix things up. Ciarrocca served as Minnesota's offensive coordinator last year, and the Golden Gophers ranked 54th in yards per play (5.5) -- much better than the 129th-ranked Scarlet Knights (4). Ciarrocca-led offenses have ranked 83rd in 2020 (5.3), 16th in 2019 (6.3) and 68th in 2018 (5.5) in yards per play over the last half-decade.
It won't be that hard for Rutgers to get four wins. The Scalet Knights will host Northwestern, Temple, Virginia Tech, Wagner, Michigan State, Ohio State and Maryland. They'll also visit Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, and Penn State. A worse version of this team blew out Wagner in Piscataway and beat Temple in Philadelphia last year, so those are likely wins this year. Home games against Northwestern, Virginia Tech and Michigan State are all winnable. So is the road trip to Indiana. The 4.5 is a much more efficient number, so lock in the over 3.5 at -150 (60%) via BetMGM before it disappears.
Big Ten Win Total Prediction: Rutgers Over 3.5 -150 for 1.5 Units at BetMGM
