The Pac-12 will look much different once USC and UCLA move on for the Big Ten, but for now, we’ve got the usual suspects competing for the final Pac-12 title under the current framework. While some analysts will focus on the big-name favorites like USC and Caleb Williams, I’ve got my attention focused elsewhere. Let’s dive into the college football win total odds for the Pac-12 to make some predictions and identify the best picks.
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down the upcoming college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles. Come back during the college football season for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out now!
College Football Predictions 2023: Pac-12 Win Total Odds & Picks (July 11)
Pac-12 Win Total Betting Odds
Don't Miss Out on These Arbitrage Betting Opportunities
If you looked at the chart above and thought, "Huh, that doesn't make sense," when you got to the Arizona State, Stanford and UCLA markets, you aren't alone. Bettors who get action on both sides of those programs' win totals via BetMGM and FanDuel can guarantee a profit. Between the two books, you'll find a hold rate of -4.3%, -14.6% and -7.4% on them, respectively.
Let's take advantage of these arbitrage betting opportunities. I won't do the math for all three markets, but I'll help you out with the highest-value one, Stanford. If you bet $100 on the over 2.5 at +152 (39.7%) via FanDuel and $120 on the under 2.5 at +110 (47.6%) via BetMGM, you're securing a free 14.6% return on your money, meaning you'll make $32 in total. A single arbitrage bet won't change your life, but placing many of them between different books over the long haul is a good way to build your bankroll.
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Want a Real Pick? Leave it to the Beavers
It's impossible not to like the Oregon State Beavers heading into 2023. Last year, the Beavs annihilated the Florida Gators by 27 points in the Las Vegas Bowl to secure their first season with double-digit wins since 2006. They ended the year ranked 17th in both the AP Poll and the coach's poll. It's taken some time, but head coach Jonathan Smith has this team headed in the right direction, led by a defense that ranked 10th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index and 24th in yards allowed per game (338.7).
In an increasingly pass-happy Pac-12, head coach Jonathan Smith has opted for a run-heavy attack. His Beavers ran at the 11th-highest clip (60.9%), led by running back Damien Martinez, who has been named a preseason All-American by Phil Steele. Martinez had plenty of help in the form of an offensive line that ranked 10th in average line yards, and the unit will return four of its five starters from last season. He'll get to work with dual-threat quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, who, while not an efficient passer, will get plenty of chances to flash his mobility.
Oregon State's schedule isn't great, but it's more than good enough to justify getting excited about the Beavers. Oregon State will host UC Davis, San Diego State, Utah, UCLA, Stanford and Washington. Oregon State will also visit San Jose State, Wazzu, Cal, Arizona, Colorado and Oregon. The Beavers are a 16.5-point road favorite over SJSU and will be favored over both UC Davis and SDSU. Games against three bottom-30 defenses in yards allowed per rush attempt, Stanford (130th, 6.3), Colorado (128th, 6.3) and Arizona State (124th, 5.5) help give the Beavers a pretty high floor.
Reaching the nine-win mark to cash the over 8.5 will likely come down to whether Oregon State can beat one of Utah, UCLA, Washington or Oregon, the first three of which they'll face at home. Oregon State has gone an impressive 17-11-1 against the spread at home under Jonathan Smith, and while that has only translated into a 16-13 record, this roster is talented enough to win outright. Anything in the plus money is good for this wager, so I'm a big fan of the +130 (43.5%) at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pac-12 Win Total Prediction: Oregon State Over 8.5 Wins +130 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
