Week 6 brings us 11 games with totals above 60 points! One of those games is No. 12 Oklahoma visiting No. 3 Texas in a battle of unbeaten teams, however the game I’ll be focusing on is No. 21 Missouri hosting No. 23 LSU with a total of 64.5 points and a 4.5 point spread. In this post, we’ll be looking at our college football PrizePicks Week 6 predictions and plays.
With a handful of games and props to choose from, let’s take a look at the best college football PrizePicks plays for Saturday’s slate of games. With the assistance of OddsShopper’s PrizePicks optimizer, I’ve designed these plays to help you make informed choices and maximize your chances of success.
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College Football Week 6 PrizePicks Predictions
Brady Cook, Missouri, More/Less Than 273.3 Passing Yards
Missouri is coming off a 17-point win at Vanderbilt and is back home to face the SEC’s worst-rated coverage team. LSU ranks 16th worst in the country in coverage, and we saw them get exploited last week vs Ole Miss, allowing 389 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air. Jaxon Dart’s prop was 260.5 vs LSU, so this is a bit higher.
Missouri is averaging 8.5 points more than the game total in the last three weeks. Although I think LSU is going to win this game, Cook will get his yards. He ranks in the top 20 in all major passing categories, and his 74.4 completion percentage ranks ninth, ahead of this week’s opposing quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Cook is averaging 36 passing attempts in his last three games, while he’s thrown for 356, 341 (only 25 attempts), and 395 yards respectively in those wins. Missouri ranks 15th in pass-blocking efficiency in the country. LSU did not record a single sack vs Ole Miss last week and only had three hits on the quarterback.
LSU is favored in this one, but the spread has gone from 7 to 4.5 while the game total went from 62.5 to 65. Good news for Missouri bettors and Brady Cook overs. No matter what the game script is here, Missouri likes to pass, and if they fall behind or if this ends up being a shootout, Cook is going to smash the over on this prop in a game with two of the top 10-rated offenses in college football.
College Football PrizePicks Play: Brady Cook More than 273.3 Passing Yards
Luther Burden, Missouri, More/Less Than 109.5 Receiving Yards
Stacking high-total games is a good idea for flex plays, and that’s exactly the move here. LSU has allowed five different receivers to eclipse the 100-yard mark in five games.
Burden is averaging 10.2 targets per game and has recorded 114 receiving yards or more in four of five games (93 in the other). None of Missouri’s opponents have been as talented as LSU’s offense, and this game environment screams pass. Burden has a 43% target share. Great correlation with Cook’s passing yards prop.
College Football Week 6 PrizePicks Predictions: Luther Burden More than 109.5 Receiving Yards
Brian Thomas, LSU, More/Less Than 85.5 Receiving Yards
You can tell I like this game a lot by adding a third player to the list. Although I like Nabers, I like Thomas even more because of this low number.
Malik Nabers leads the team with 53 targets and is getting all the hype to be a top 10 pick in the upcoming NFL draft, but it’s Thomas who leads the Tigers with eight touchdowns and a 16.3 yards per reception average. His playing time is right up there with Nabers as LSU runs with more than one wideout, and his targets have been consistent: 8, 7, 8, 7, 10. Thomas has three 100+ yard games so far. The two games he didn’t go over (78 and 60) were blowouts and LSU didn’t need to pass.
College Football PrizePicks Play: Brian Thomas, LSU, More than 85.5 Receiving Yards
Trey Benson, Florida State, More/Less Than 69.5 Rushing Yards
No. 5 Florida State will host 2-3 Virginia Tech. The Seminoles are favored by 23.5 points, and the Hokies’ run defense is horrendous. They have allowed six different players to rush for more than 70 yards in their five games and allow 177.6 rushing yards per game, the third most in the ACC.
Quarterback Jordan Travis already has 1,000 yards passing and is averaging 4.1 yards per carry on the ground, but it’s Trey Benson who leads the team with 40 carries and four touchdowns. He’s only averaging 10 attempts per game, but his 994 rushing yards and 6.5 yards per carry in 2022 tell us he should be getting the ball more. Simply put, FSU has been passing more, but that should change this week given the matchup with the Hokies.
Benson had 31 carries of 10+ yards in 2022 and an elusiveness rating over 200. His breakout game is coming, and with FSU likely playing with a big lead, he should get plenty of touches on the ground this week. I’m smashing the over on this prop.
College Football PrizePicks Play: Trey Benson More Than 69.5 Rushing Yards
Henry Parrish, Miami, More/Less Than 71.5 Rushing Yards
Another running back from Florida facing another bad run defense in the ACC. The Hurricanes are 20-point favorites over Georgia Tech, and this game has a 57.5-point spread after opening at 60. Although Miami has spread it around this season with four players recording 24 or more rushing attempts, Parrish leads the team with 42, 15 more than the next guy. Miami has only had one real test this season vs Texas A & M, and Parrish was the horse in that game, leading all backs with 34 snaps.
Georgia Tech has allowed 224.2 rushing yards per game, the third most in the FBS. Their defense allows 30.8 points per game, which is also in the bottom 25 in college football. The Yellow Jackets are rated the second worst tackling team in the ACC. They have allowed four 100-yard rushers in their five games.
Parrish is coming off his best game of the season. In a 41-7 rout of Temple, he rushed for 139 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries. As heavy favorites at home and with a matchup with No. 14 North Carolina looming next week, Miami won’t be fooling around in this one. Parrish gets back-to-back 100-yard games and goes over this rushing prop.
College Football Week 6 PrizePicks Predictions: Henry Parrish, More Than 71.5 Rushing Yards
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