Welcome back, football. Truly, we missed you. From the spring practices through the madness of the transfer portal to preseason futures betting — actual games that matter have finally arrived. Two of the best teams in the country are already in action, with the No. 6 USC Trojans taking on San Jose State and the No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish opening up the year in Ireland against Navy. However, neither of those teams will dazzle quite like this week’s pick for Upset of the Week, who could shock the nation with a magnificent defeat of a “better” team — or at least one receiving more hype. This UMass-New Mexico State pick is the best college football upset pick for Week 0!
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 0. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now!
College Football Upset & Underdog Pick: Week 0
UMass-New Mexico State Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
UMass: +240 | NMSU: -350
UMass +7.5: -110 | NMSU -7.5: -110
Over 45: -110 | Under 45: -110
UMass-New Mexico State Upset Pick
The University of Massachusetts Minutemen were an all-out disaster last season, finishing just 1-11 on the year. Things simply can’t get any worse for the Minutemen and coach Don Brown in his second year at the helm. It’s a hard pill to swallow for most of the public bettors looking at last year’s record and thinking anything concrete can improve, or even the good from that season carrying over to this year.
UMass will take on a New Mexico State team that barely finished above .500 and is joining Conference USA after being an independent. The Aggies made a significant improvement on defense with Jerry Kill taking over at head coach last year, but they lost their main reason for the turnaround — linebacker play. Their secondary failed to force turnovers, and they lost games as a result of the turnover differential. The Aggies return a couple of receivers and three offensive linemen, but are truly shaky at the quarterback spot, even with Texas A&M transfer Eli Stowers possibly fighting an inaccurate Diego Pavia for the job.
Unlike the Aggies, the Minutemen return a bunch of starters on an underappreciated defensive unit — eight of them, to be exact. Their defense played exceptionally well last year despite the overall results, and they should look better right out of the gate. Transfer quarterback Taisun Phommachanh comes from Clemson and Georgia Tech to provide some stability at the quarterback spot. He’ll play behind four of the five starting offensive linemen from last year’s squad.
Ultimately, the Aggies won’t have much time to figure out some key areas on the field against UMass. While the Minutemen will have to focus on stretching the field with their new quarterback, sticking to a solid run game can help loosen an Aggies defense with too many new faces. I recommend that you take UMass plus the points — you’re getting 7.5 of them — but the true value is watching Brown and his team match their entire win total last year with a shocking college football upset in Week 0 at Aggie Memorial.
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College Football Upset Pick for Week 0: UMass +240 at DraftKings
