College football is back, and this time, it’s for real. We have our first full slate of the year on tap this weekend. We went 2-1 last weekend, winning two total bets but losing our Ohio moneyline wager after their quarterback went down in the first quarter. I’m hoping to roll that momentum forward into this weekend to help us make some more money. Let’s dive into my college football Week 1 predictions so that we can talk about the best Week 1 picks for Florida-Utah, UTSA-Houston, Colorado-TCU and more college football action.
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College Football Week 1 Predictions: Picks for Florida-Utah, UTSA-Houston, UNC-South Carolina and More
Florida-Utah College Football Week 1 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Florida: +205 | Utah: -255
Florida +6.5: -110 | Utah -6.5: -110
Over 45.5: -115 | Under 45.5: -105
For updated Florida-Utah picks and odds, click here.
The Florida Gators had a season to forget last year. Despite producing a first-round draft selection at quarterback, the Gators barely achieved bowl eligibility and got stomped by the Oregon State Beavers in the Las Vegas Bowl. They’ll look to avoid a third-straight losing season with Billy Napier now in his second year as head coach. He’ll get to work with quarterback Graham Mertz, who just transferred in from Wisconsin. Mertz wasn’t great, but he still ranked 62nd in passing efficiency last year with a 135. For context, Anthony Richardson recorded a 131 and ranked 74th.
There is a good argument to make that Mertz fits Napier’s offense better than Richardson. During his dominant run at Louisiana, Napier started a more traditional passer in Levi Lewis, an undersized, less athletic passer, who completed 61.2% of his career attempts. Richardson, a gifted athlete with size, speed and a strong arm completed only 53.8% of his throws in Napier’s first year at the helm. He had attempted only 66 passes at the collegiate level before Napier’s arrival. Mertz has seen action in four seasons and has tallied 773 attempts, completing 59.5% of them.
Mertz and Napier have a dangerous supporting cast with which to work. Running back Trevor Etienne, the younger brother of Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne, returns after averaging 6.2 yards from scrimmage per play. He’ll serve as a change-of-pace option alongside Montrell Johnson Jr, who averaged 5.4 yards from scrimmage per play. Johnson shredded Utah last season for 6.3 yards per carry and a touchdown. Athletic wide receiver Ricky Pearsall also returns after a 661-yard, five-touchdown season. Pearsall is a large part of why Napier’s offense still averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt, which ranked 62nd, despite Richardson’s struggles with accuracy.
The Utah Utes had a solid season, which was capped by two wins over USC, but they opened last year with a loss to Florida and have hemorrhaged key personnel since. Running back Tavion Thomas, who went for 1,108 yards on 5.4 yards per carry in 2021 and another 687 on 4.8 in 2022 before going down with an injury, has moved on. He accounted for 115 yards and a touchdown against Florida last season. The team’s leading receiver, star tight end Dalton Kincaid, left for the NFL. He caught only two passes for 29 yards against Florida last year, but his absence will allow the Gators to focus more attention on other offensive pieces.
The biggest story for Thursday’s Florida-Utah game is the Utes’ quarterback, Cameron Rising, who is coming off an ACL tear. Rising tore his ACL in last year’s Rose Bowl and underwent surgery in January, putting him right at the standard nine-month mark for a recovery. Rising has been a key part of Utah’s recent success — he ranked 32nd in passing efficiency last year with a 149, slightly better than the 146.7 he recorded the year before. Still, Rising’s success stemmed from his ability to move around in the pocket, which he may not be able to do as freely at the start of the year. The Utes are trading as a 6.5-point home favorite, so I’m excited to take the Gators plus the points in this spot.
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Florida-Utah Week 1 Pick & Prediction: Florida +6.5 -110 at Caesars
Colorado-TCU College Football Week 1 Prediction
For updated Colorado-TCU picks and odds, click here.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Colorado: +680 | TCU: -1100
Colorado +20.5: -105 | TCU -20.5: -115
Over 63: -110 | Under 63: -110
In one of the most anticipated games of Week 1, the Colorado Buffaloes, now coached by Deion Sanders, will take on the TCU Horned Frogs, who just went to the National Championship Game. Neither team will look much like it did last season. Colorado turned over almost its entire roster as Sanders brought both new recruits and his players from Jackson State. TCU lost several big names, including quarterback Max Duggan, wide receiver Quentin Johnston, and running backs Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado. Last year’s Week 1 starter, Chandler Morris, looks like the Week 1 starter again this year — but that might not go so well for the Frogs.
TCU’s quarterback was solid in limited action in 2021 but regressed in 2022. Morris failed to lead a single scoring drive in the first half against Colorado in Week 1 of last season — TCU’s only first half points came from a punt return. That’s especially egregious because Colorado ended the year ranked 130th in yards allowed per play at 7.2. He now owns a career passing efficiency grade of 148. Morris gets to work with some talented transfers, like big-bodied boundary receiver Warren Thompson from Arkansas and shifty slot receiver John Paul Richardson from Oklahoma State, but I’m having a hard time getting that excited about TCU’s offense this year.
The Buffaloes are far from perfect themselves, but we don’t need them to be when the spread is this wide. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders, son of Deion, will lead this offense. He completed 68.4% of his passes for 6,963 passing yards and 70 touchdowns across two FCS seasons, good for a career passing efficiency grade of 156.3. While he’ll have to play some far more challenging defenses, he’ll also benefit from working with offensive coordinator Sean Lewis, whose Kent State Golden Flashes ranked 21st in yards per pass attempt with Dustin Crum at the helm in 2021. His offense ranked fifth in the metric in 2020 as well. However, Lewis couldn’t replicate that success in 2022 with Collin Schlee at the helm, so he’ll need Sanders to hold up his end of the bargain.
Last year’s meeting of these teams, which was played at Colorado, saw TCU close as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 59.5. The Horned Frogs have gained an extra 7 points while the total has moved by only one. While sharp bettors are right to be suspicious of new head coach Deion Sanders and his entirely unproven Buffaloes, they might not be sufficiently suspicious of TCU’s ability to replicate last season’s success. The Frogs were by far the luckiest team in the FBS last year, finishing with a luck score of +3.3. Let’s bet on some regression and back the Buffaloes to cover a spread that is far too wide.
Colorado-TCU Week 1 Pick & Prediction: Colorado +20.5 -105 at FanDuel
Texas State-Baylor College Football Week 1 Prediction
For updated Texas State-Baylor picks and odds, click here.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Texas State: N/A | Baylor: N/A
Texas State +27.5: -110 | Baylor -27.5: -110
Over 62.5: -110 | Under 62.5: -110
Call me a sicko, but I’ll be watching this game on Saturday — I want to see what new Texas State head coach G.J. Kinne has cooked up in Austin. Kinne comes to Texas State after one season at FCS Incarnate Word, a program he brought to the semifinals. Kinne is an exciting, offensive-minded coach who managed to pull both Malik Hornsby (Arkansas) and T.J. Finley (Auburn) from the transfer portal. It’s unclear which of them will start, but both have flashed serious talent. Hornsby is a big, dual-threat quarterback with some limitations as a passer. Finley is even bigger but is more of a pocket passer. Both have struggled with efficiency in their limited snaps.
Fortunately for Hornsby and Finley, Kinne has coached up quarterbacks before. He recruited Lindsey Scott Jr. to Incarnate Word last year, who, across six seasons of action, had recorded a passing efficiency grade of 138.4 — only for him to post a 197.7 with Kinne. While such a turnaround was made all the easier by the FCS-level competition, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either or both quarterbacks take major strides for their new team. Whichever signal-caller starts will get to work with transfer and boundary receiver Beau Corrales, who flashed some big-play ability with North Carolina in 2019 but has struggled to see the field since, along with shifty slot receiver Ashtyn Hawkins, who led the Bobcats with 587 receiving yards last season.
The Baylor Bears were one of the FBS’ unluckiest teams last season and will look to shake off their underwhelming 6-7 season. Quarterback Blake Shapen returns after ranking 57th in passing efficiency with a 137.7. Star running back Richard Reese also returns after breaking out for a 972-rushing yard, 14-touchdown season that could’ve been better if head coach Dave Aranda hadn’t limited his usage down the stretch to keep him healthy. Despite their bad record, the Bears ranked 39th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index last season, ranking 25th on offense and 56th on defense.
The market expects a high-scoring affair in Waco on Saturday, but I think we have a good shot at exceeding the current number. Texas State will run a base nickel defense that it buttressed with support from defensive backs signed via the transfer portal. That will leave it vulnerable to a Baylor team that can run efficiently with Reese. Further, the Bears’ defense struggled against the pass last year, ranking 75th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.4), and they didn’t do much to address the issue. Sophomores will start at both cornerback spots and safety. The team’s leader in interceptions, Christian Morgan, and in passes defended, Lorando Johnson, both left the team in the offseason.
Texas State-Baylor Week 1 Pick & Prediction: Over 60.5 -110 at Fanatics
UTSA-Houston College Football Week 1 Prediction
For updated UTSA-Houston picks and odds, click here.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
UTSA: -115 | Houston: -104
UTSA -1.5: -105 | Houston +1.5: -105
Over 60.5: -110 | Under 60.5: -110
In one of the more contentious games of Week 1, the UTSA Roadrunners will take on the Houston Cougars. The Roadrunners kept star quarterback Frank Harris this offseason, but the Cougars lost their star quarterback, Clayton Tune, to the Arizona Cardinals. Houston will now turn to transfer Donovan Smith, who ranked 67th in passing efficiency at 133.9 with Texas Tech last season. Smith is a dual-threat quarterback who added seven rushing scores and one receiving score last year, but his skillset may be poorly suited for head coach Dana Holgorsen’s pass-heavy offense. The Cougars ranked 18th in passing play percentage last year at 56.7%.
Houston, a first-year member of the Big 12, had a rough offseason. Per Action Network’s Transfer Asset and Returning Production (TARP) metric, the Cougars had the sixth-worst offseason of the conference at -3.5. The losses of Tune and star receiver Tank Dell were somewhat offset by other additions, especially on defense. Meanwhile, UTSA recorded a -6.5, headlined by the departure of leading receiver Zakhari Franklin, who recorded 1,136 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. The Roadrunners kept their second-leading receiver, Joshua Cephus, who recorded 985 yards and six touchdowns, along with their third-leading receiver, De’Corian Clark, who recorded 741 yards and eight scores.
Cephus, Clark and JUCO transfer Willie McCoy are more than enough weapons for Harris to pull off a road upset against the Cougars. Harris ranked 13th in passing efficiency at 160.7 last year and has improved in the metric every season. He also added 602 yards and nine scores with his legs. The Roadrunners ranked 25th in yards per play (6.1) with him at the helm, slightly worse than the 16th-ranked Cougars (6.4), but their retention of key assets will help them start the year smoothly.
Mobile quarterbacks routinely caused problems for the Cougars last season. Houston opened the year at UTSA last season, and Harris racked up 63 rushing yards and a score on eight attempts, helping the Roadrunners force overtime and cover as 4.5-point underdogs. Later, Kansas’ Jalon Daniels recorded 123 rushing yards and two scores on 12 attempts, while Tulsa’s Braylon Braxton notched 51 yards and a score on 11 attempts. Although the Cougars bolstered their secondary through the portal, they didn’t add much depth to their front seven, so expect Harris to have plenty of chances to gash them for big gains on Saturday. This pick is my top college football prediction for Week 1.
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UTSA-Houston Week 1 Pick & Prediction: UTSA Moneyline -115 at DraftKings
South Carolina-North Carolina College Football Week 1 Prediction
For updated South Carolina-North Carolina picks and odds, click here.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
South Carolina: +116 | North Carolina: -140
South Carolina +2.5: -105 | North Carolina -2.5: -115
Over 64.5: -110 | Under 64.5: -110
The South Carolina Gamecocks and North Carolina Tar Heels will do battle in Charlotte on Saturday in what should be a high-scoring, competitive game. The Gamecocks captured plenty of media attention last year by upsetting both Tennessee and Clemson, but aside from those big wins, they were relatively unimpressive. Shane Beamer’s squad ranked 46th in yards per play (5.7) and 87th in yards allowed per play (5.7). Quarterback Spencer Rattler finished 54th in passing efficiency at 138.7, marking his worst season in the metric. Meanwhile, North Carolina ranked 37th in yards per play (5.9) but 114th in yards allowed per play (6.1), with quarterback Drake Maye ranking an impressive 18th in passing efficiency at 157.9.
The Gamecocks got worse in the offseason while the Tar Heels got much, much better. South Carolina recorded a -2.5 TARP while North Carolina recorded a +8.5. Departing for the Gamecocks were running backs Marshawn Lloyd and Jaheim Bell, leaving them with a tough situation at the position. Juju McDowell returns, but he ran for only 219 yards on 3.5 yards per carry. Dakereon Joyner is back, too, but he ran for only 56 yards last year. He initially came to South Carolina as a quarterback before converting to receiver, so this marks his third position in six seasons. Behind them are two true freshmen and a Division II transfer, Mario Anderson.
The Tar Heels lost some talented players, including leading receiver Josh Downs, but added more than enough to make up for it. Kent State transfer Devontez Walker, who tallied 921 yards and 11 scores on just 58 catches for the Golden Flashes last year, and Georgia Tech transfer Nate McCollum, who tallied 655 yards and three scores on 60 catches, have arrived. The Tar Heels added several pieces at linebacker and in the secondary as well, including pass rusher Amari Gainer (Florida State) and ballhawk safety Antavious Lane (Georgia State). Lane spent three seasons as a starter and tallied 11 interceptions, 13 passes defended, four forced fumbles and two defensive touchdowns.
Although the Tar Heels didn’t show much life on defense last year, their offense is that much better than the Gamecocks’ — and their transfer assets that much better than who they’ll replace — such that I expected North Carolina to enter this game as a much larger favorite. The Tar Heels ranked 61st in the FEI last year because of their 118th-ranked defense, which should look much better, but 18th offensively. The Gamecocks ranked 33rd but were 49th on offense and 57th on defense. The range of outcomes for the Tar Heels in this game is wide, but they cover the spread for this one more often than they don’t.
South Carolina-North Carolina Week 1 Pick & Prediction: North Carolina Moneyline -140 for 1.4 Units at FanDuel
South Alabama-Tulane College Football Week 1 Prediction
For updated South Alabama-Tulane picks and odds, click here.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
South Alabama: +198 | Tulane: -245
South Alabama +6.5: -102 | Tulane -6.5: -120
Over 52.5: -115 | Under 52.5: -105
I’ll forgive you if you’re still convinced that last year’s performance from the Tulane Green Wave wasn’t a fluke. After a terrible 2021 season, Tulane somehow managed to make it to a New Year’s Six Bowl — which they then won — but that won’t happen again this year. Tulane finished the year ranked sixth in luck. Although they were also 21st in the FEI, I’m very skeptical of their ability to repeat that performance. The Green Wave ranked 90th in 2021 and 62nd in 2020. They’ll get to open the season at home, but they’ll have to face a terrifying South Alabama team that could make some noise early this season.
The South Alabama Jaguars are scary. They lost just two regular-season games last year by a combined 5 points. They almost knocked off UCLA, who needed a last-second field goal to win and suffered a 4-point road loss to the Sun Belt Conference champions, Troy. The Jaguars ended the year ranked only 65th in the FEI but were 51st in yards per play (5.6) and 39th in yards allowed per play (5.2). The offseason went well for them, as they kept quarterback Carter Bradley, who ranked 39th in passing efficiency at 146.7, and running back La’Damian Webb, who tallied 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns on 5.1 yards per carry. South Alabama recorded a +8 TARP, primarily by keeping its already solid roster intact.
The Tulane Green Wave were great last season, don’t get me wrong, but they shouldn’t be favored so heavily over South Alabama. Quarterback Michael Pratt ranked 10th in passing efficiency at 161.8, but he loses receiving back Tyjae Spears and leading receivers Shae Wyatt and Duece Watts, the three of whom had combined for 1,605 receiving yards and 17 scores. The arrival of transfers Dontae Fleming (Louisiana) and Yulkeith Brown (Texas A&M) should help. New running back Shedro Louis is talented but has only 36 career receptions and caught only nine passes last season. Expect some growing pains for this offense, especially early.
South Alabama’s defense is not one you want to face if you’re making some offensive adjustments. The Jaguars ranked 36th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.8). Defensive back Yam Banks, who recorded six interceptions, 11 passes defended and a touchdown last year, is back to lead the secondary. Tulane played several terrible defenses, like USF, SMU, UMass and USC last year. They played just one team that ranked ahead of South Alabama in yards per pass attempt allowed, and Pratt struggled for just 162 yards and one touchdown in that game, earning a passing efficiency grade of just 135.9. Expect the Jaguars to cover the spread and possibly pull off the upset.
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South Alabama-Tulane Week 1 Pick & Prediction: South Alabama +6.5 -102 at FanDuel
Oregon State-San Jose State College Football Week 1 Prediction
For updated Oregon State-San Jose State picks and odds, click here.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Oregon State: -900 | San Jose State: +590
Oregon State -16.5: -118 | San Jose State +16.5: -104
Over 54.5: -110 | Under 54.5: -110
After going out and throttling the Florida Gators in the Las Vegas Bowl, the Oregon State Beavers pulled D.J. Uiagalelei out of the transfer portal. Although he struggled with Clemson at points, Uiagalelei fits this offense like a glove. He brings both size and mobility to an Oregon State team that ranked only 121st in passing play percentage (39.1%) last year. Uiagalelei recorded 913 rushing yards and 15 scores across three seasons with the Tigers but struggled to move the ball as a passer, recording an atrocious 108.7 passing efficiency grade in 2021 before improving to 135 in 2022.
Uiagalelei will get to work alongside running back Damien Martinez, who earned Pac-12 Offensive Rookie of the Year honors last year, to form an elite two-man attack. Martinez ran for 982 yards and seven scores on 6.1 yards per carry last season, adding another 61 yards on just four receptions. He helped Oregon State rank a solid 39th in yards per play (5.9). Even though the Beavers struggled to find consistent quarterback play, they still ranked 22nd in average time of possession (31:56), largely because they also ranked 125th in seconds per play (29.3). Head coach Jonathan Smith has zigged where the rest of the Pac-12 has zagged by emphasizing the run and strong defensive play, and it should pay dividends this year.
Oregon State opens the season with a road game against the San Jose State Spartans. SJSU had a tepid 2022 campaign, finishing 7-5 and getting blown out in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by Eastern Michigan. The Spartans got in some early action in Week 0, losing to USC by 56-28. Returning quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, who ranked 50th in passing efficiency at 139.6 last year, completed 55.2% of his passes for 198 yards and three scores against USC’s bad defense. The Spartans ripped off 6 yards per play, up from the 5.5 they averaged last year.
Before USC ran away with the game in the second half, SJSU had kept scoring low by controlling the clock. The Spartans began the game with some slow-paced drives and ended up possessing the ball for 30:42 while taking 27.5 seconds per play. If they adopt a similar game plan against Oregon State, it’d be surprising to see this one go over a relatively lofty total — especially since SJSU has been able to stop the run. The Spartans held USC’s electric offense to only 4.7 yards per rush and ranked eighth in yards allowed per rush last season (3.3).
Oregon State-San Jose State Week 1 Pick & Prediction: Under 55 -110 at DraftKings
Clemson-Duke College Football Week 1 Prediction
For updated Clemson-Duke picks and odds, click here.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Clemson: +800 | Duke: +420
Clemson -13.5: -110 | Duke +13.5: -110
Over 55.5: -112 | Under 55.5: -108
With most analysts having the Clemson Tigers trending down and the Duke Blue Devils trending up, it may not come as a surprise to see Clemson favored by less than two full touchdowns for Monday night’s matchup. But this is still Clemson, and that is still Duke. Clemson ended 2022 ranked 18th in the FEI, far ahead of 41st-ranked Duke. The Tigers also made some meaningful changes in the offseason, including the pivot to quarterback Cade Klubnik. Klubnik looked excellent in relief of D.J. Uiagalelei against North Carolina, completing 83.3% of his passes for 279 yards and a score, adding 30 yards and a touchdown with his legs. He then struggled against Tennessee in the Orange Bowl, but the Tigers were playing without several key assets.
Klubnik is an exciting prospect with breakout potential. He’ll have a receiving corps that features Antonio Williams, who led the Tigers with 604 receiving yards and four scores last year, and Beaux Collins, a former four-star recruit who struggled to meet his potential while working with Uiagalelei under center. Cole Turner has breakout potential as well — he caught three passes for 101 yards in Klubnik’s debut as a starter. Williams added another 40 yards on three receptions in that game, but Collins wasn’t active, so we’re yet to see Klubnik will his full cast of weapons. The results could be scary, especially against ACC defenses.
The Duke secondary probably won’t be able to stop Clemson’s passing attack. The Blue Devils ranked 69th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.2) and 107th in passing yards allowed per game (267.3). Drake Maye lit them up by completing 73.7 of his passes for 380 yards and three scores, good for a passing efficiency grade of 183.7. The Blue Devils didn’t add much new talent to their secondary. Do-it-all safety Brandon Johnson is back, but he won’t have much support — fellow safety Datrone Young and coverage linebacker Shaka Heyward are both gone after combining for 13 passes defended and three interceptions.
Let’s trust the Tigers and Klubnik to start the year off on the right foot. Duke will benefit from home-field advantage, but let’s be honest, how much do they really gain? Duke is a steady 9-4 against the spread at home since 2021, but that doesn’t tell the full story — the Blue Devils are only 4-3 against the spread as a home favorite through that span. They are also only 1-1 against the spread when lined up against ranked opponents. The Klubnik era should get fully underway with a bang, and unfortunately for the Blue Devils, the schedule puts them at the wrong end of a loaded gun. This pick for Monday is one of my favorite college football predictions for Week 1.
Clemson-Duke Week 1 Pick & Prediction: Clemson -13 -110 at DraftKings
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