Who saw that Colorado upset coming? How about Texas State? Although we didn’t play the moneyline in those games, last week’s column was high on both squads — the former to cover, the latter to cash the over. We’re back with another exciting slate of college football this weekend. Although this weekend’s action will have to contend with the return of the NFL, we’ll still get some fun games on both Friday and Saturday. Without further ado, let’s dive into my college football Week 2 predictions so that we can talk about the best Week 2 picks for Illinois-Kansas, Texas-Alabama Auburn-Cal and more college football action.
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our SEC and Big Ten season previews. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you– or try it out now!
College Football Week 2 Predictions: Picks for Illinois-Kansas, Texas-Alabama, Auburn-Cal and More
Illinois-Kansas College Football Week 2 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Illinois: +136 | Kansas: -164
Illinois +3: -105 | Kansas -3: -115
Over 55.5: -110 | Under 55.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
For updated Illinois-Kansas odds and picks, click here.
Week 2 gets underway with a matchup between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Kansas Jayhawks. Both teams put together solid campaigns in 2022 but just couldn’t finish down the stretch. Illinois is off to a shaky start in 2023, narrowly beating Toledo by two points in Week 1. Meanwhile, Kansas scored a 31-point win over FCS Missouri State. That’s a solid win, but it came by 15 points less than what they beat FCS Tennessee Tech by in Week 1 last season. However, Kansas will get a shot in the arm ahead of Friday’s contest: star quarterback Jalon Daniels is set to make his return.
The Illini lost last year’s starting quarterback, Tommy DeVito, to the NFL, so they’re in a transition year at the position. They plucked Luke Altmyer from the transfer portal this offseason, but we don’t have much data on the sophomore — after Week 1, he has 80 career pass attempts, of which he has completed 57.5% for 6.6 yards per attempt, five scores and four interceptions. Altmyer was a four-star recruit as a transfer and out of high school, and he works best as a traditional pocket passer. He gets to work with last year’s leading receiver, Isaiah Williams, who recorded 715 yards and five scores.
Illinois’ strength has been its defense, and the offseason wasn’t kind to the unit. Star cornerback Devon Witherspoon and safeties Jartavius Martin and Sydney Brown all went in the first two days of this year’s NFL Draft. The new-look secondary allowed Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn to complete 55.6% of his passes for 6.4 yards per attempt, two touchdowns and one interception. The Illini recorded just a single sack. Although the defensive line retained star linemen Jer’Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph Jr, both of whom received all-conference honors, Toledo still racked up 186 rushing yards on 4.4 yards per carry.
Was Illinois’ bad Week 1 showing a fluke, or is it a sign of things to come? Although the Toledo Rockets got plenty of big plays, they weren’t super consistent, and they benefited from 10 penalties and 100 penalty yards. Illinois may have struggled with penalties last year, too, but that didn’t stop them from going 8-4-1 (66.7%) to the under. While Daniels and the Jayhawks went 9-4 (69.2%) to the over, they did so by exceeding rock-bottom expectations. The total of 55.5 for Friday’s action feels a bit too high relative to what we’re used to seeing from Illinois — the Illini never went over this number last season — so let’s bet on a bounce-back showing from their defense on Friday.
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Illinois-Kansas Week 2 Pick & Prediction: Under 56 -110 at Caesars
Vanderbilt-Wake Forest College Football Week 2 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Vanderbilt: +350 | Wake Forest: -465
Vanderbilt +11.5: -112 | Wake Forest -11.5: -108
Over 58.5: -110 | Under 58.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
For updated Vanderbilt-Wake Forest odds and picks, click here.
When these teams met last season, Sam Hartman led the Wake Forest Demon Deacons to a 20-point road win, covering the 13.5-point spread with ease. Hartman threw for 300 yards, 47.3% of which came on passes to A.T. Perry, as the then-ranked Deacons easily bested the Vanderbilt Commodores. But now both Hartman and Perry are gone, leaving the Deacons as only an 11.5-point home favorite over the ‘Dores. That spread just feels a little too wide to me, and I love the opportunity to get Vanderbilt plus so many points on Saturday — make sure to lock this one in before it ticks under the key number of 10.
Wake Forest got much worse in the offseason. The Deacons replaced Hartman, who ranked 15th in passing efficiency last season at 159.4, with backup Mitch Griffis. Griffis hasn’t been bad in the limited action we’ve seen him to date, as he owns a career passing efficiency grade of 161.9, but almost all of his passing attempts came against FCS Virginia Military and FCS Elon. Wake also no longer has Perry, last year’s leading receiver, to target. Griffis still helped the Deacons put 37 points on the board against Elon in Week 1, but Vanderbilt put up 42 against that FCS program last season.
Neither team has done much defensively. Vanderbilt ranked an atrocious 128th in yards allowed per play (6.8) last season. Wake ranked 83rd (5.7). The ‘Dores currently rank 67th in yards allowed per play (6.2) this year, which doesn’t count their game against FCS Alabama A&M, who they held to only 4.1 yards per play. Wake hasn’t faced an FBS opponent this year but held FCS Elon to 3.9 yards per play. This Wake defense looks much different from the one that stifled Vanderbilt last year — leading tackler Ryan Smenda Jr. is gone, as are the team’s leaders in passes defended, Gavin Holmes and J.J. Roberts.
While I still give Wake an advantage on defense, I don’t think their offense is so much better than Vanderbilt’s as to warrant this wide of a spread. Vanderbilt averaged five yards per play against Hawaii and 7.1 against FCS Alabama A&M. Wake averaged 5.7 against FCS Elon. Unlike Wake, Vanderbilt retained key personnel in quarterback A.J. Swann, who completed 72.7% of his passes against the Deacons for 13.3 yards per attempt and two scores, along with wide receivers Will Sheppard and Jayden McGowan, who tallied 101 yards and a score against the Deacons a year ago.
Vanderbilt-Wake Forest Week 2 Pick & Prediction: Vanderbilt +11.5 -112 at FanDuel
Notre Dame-NC State College Football Week 2 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Notre Dame: -295 | NC State: +235
Notre Dame -7: -118 | NC State +7: -104
Over 50.5: -110 | Under 50.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
For updated Notre Dame-NC State odds and picks, click here.
The No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will visit the NC State Wolfpack early on Saturday in a matchup that bodes poorly for the host. Led by Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman, Notre Dame has notched a pair of impressive blowout wins to start the season, beating Navy by 39 and FCS Tennessee State by 53. In contrast, NC State barely escaped the UConn Huskies with a 10-point win. They briefly trailed in the first quarter and failed to cover the 14-point spread. I’m not sure why the markets aren’t higher on the Irish, so we’re locking them in at the current number.
The quarterback disparity between these teams is massive. Hartman ranked 15th in passing efficiency last year with a 159.4. NC State’s new quarterback, Virginia transfer Brennan Armstrong, ranked 101st with a 109.4. While some of the blame for Armstrong’s struggles falls squarely on the Virginia program he has since departed, he got off to an uninspiring start for NC State against UConn, recording a 115.5 after completing 65.4% of his passes for six yards per attempt but no touchdowns. His primary contributions were as a runner — he tallied 96 yards and two scores on 19 carries.
The only argument for backing the Wolfpack is that they tend to play tough defense, but I’m not sure they’ll be good enough to limit Hartman this year. He is only 1-2 as a starter against the Wolfpack, although he has far more resources in South Bend than he did in Winston-Salem. Last year, NC State took down Hartman’s Deacons by picking him off three times and sacking him another four. However, defensive back Cyrus Fagan is gone, as is pass rusher Drake Thomas. Those two combined for one pick and two sacks against Hartman last year. Thomas led the Wolfpack in total sacks with 7.5, while Fagan ranked second in total interceptions with three.
Hartman may have a losing record as a starter against NC State, but with a better supporting cast around him, he should notch his second win against his old ACC rival. The Fighting Irish have played lights out defensively so far this season, allowing only three yards per play to Navy and 2.7 to FCS Tennessee State, which will afford Hartman some slack to make mistakes. Hartman looked unstoppable in those two games and currently owns an elite passing efficiency grade of 225.5. Let’s trust the Irish to win this one by multiple touchdowns as they look to exorcise the demons of their recent past.
Notre Dame-NC State Week 2 Pick & Prediction: Notre Dame -7 -115 for 1.5 Units at DraftKings
Troy-Kansas State College Football Week 2 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Troy: +540 | Kansas State: -800
Troy +15.5: -110 | Kansas State -15.5: -110
Over 50.5: -110 | Under 50.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
For updated Troy-Kansas State odds and picks, click here.
The Troy Trojans will visit the No. 16 Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday, and they are a two-touchdown road underdog for the matchup. That’s a little disrespectful to the reigning Sun Belt champs. Although Kansas State deserves plenty of credit for winning the Big 12 last season, the offseason was deeply unkind to them. In contrast, an already-good Troy team used the offseason to get better. The Trojans opened the year as one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt, and they should keep Saturday’s trip to Manhattan, Kan. more competitive than the books expect.
Let’s start with the offseason. Kansas State lost a number of key personnel, including defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah, who led the team in tackles for loss (11) and sacks (8.5), along with defensive backs Julius Brents and Josh Hayes, who combined for four interceptions, 11 passes defended and eight tackles for loss. Leading rusher Deuce Vaughn is gone, too. Troy lost FBS all-time leading tackler Carlton Martial but got three-star JUCO recruit Steven Cattledge to replace him. The Trojans shored up their offensive line by adding center Eli Russ (Oklahoma State), who just helped running back Kimani Vidal explode for 248 yards on 25 carries against FCS Stephen F. Austin in Week 1.
Troy is a balanced team that will be hard to beat by such a wide margin. The Trojans ranked 55th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index last season, coming in 82nd on offense and 27th on defense. Although Kansas State ranked 10th, 19th on offense and 19th on defense, their offseason departures leave them ill-equipped to blow out Troy. The Wildcats shut down FCS Southeast Missouri State in Week 1, averaging 8.3 yards per play while surrendering only 3.6, but they’ll have to grapple with a much tougher opponent in Week 2. Troy didn’t shut out FCS Stephen F. Austin, largely because of some ill-timed turnovers, but the Trojans gained 8.4 yards per play while allowing only 4.1.
The Wildcats are good, but they’re not 15.5-point favorites over the Trojans good. Troy went 12-2 last season after a dismal 1-2 start. Their two losses came against Ole Miss by 18 points and App State by four. Troy went 11-3 (78.6%) against the spread in the process, slightly better than 9-4-1 (69.2%) Kansas State. However, the Trojans were also a perfect 4-0 as road underdogs. The Trojans may not contend for the upset on Saturday, but their roster is constructed well enough such that they should keep this within two touchdowns.
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Troy-Kansas State Week 2 Pick & Prediction: Troy +16.5 -110 for 1.5 Units at DraftKings
Ole Miss-Tulane College Football Week 2 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Ole Miss: -320 | Tulane: +255
Ole Miss -7.5: -110 | Tulane +7.5: -110
Over 67.5: -105 | Under 67.5: -115
Expert: Matt Gajewski
For updated Ole Miss-Tulane odds and picks, click here.
Ole Miss opened the 2023 season with a dismantling of Mercer by 73-7 in Week 1. This included 667 total yards with only one turnover on offense. The defense also looked excellent, allowing just 235 total yards to the Bears. On the other side, Tulane bested South Alabama 37-17 in a fairly lopsided game. Despite Tulane’s strong showing, Ole Miss has taken money to open the week.
Ole Miss started incumbent signal caller Jaxson Dart over Oklahoma State transfer Spencer Sanders in Week 1. Dart played well, with 334 passing yards, four scores and 36 rushing yards. More impressively, he did this without Zakhari Franklin or tight end Caden Prieskorn. The team also rushed freshman All-American Quinshon Judkins for 60 yards on 13 carries. The offensive line also played exceptionally well, allowing just two quarterback pressures on 30 dropbacks.
While Tulane’s defense played well against South Alabama, they will have their hands full here. Linebacker Corey Platt Jr. will miss this game, adding questions to a completely rebuilt Tulane defense. Overall, the defense lost seven starters this offseason, with a majority of these players coming from the front seven. With Judkins on deck and an injury to starting linebacker Platt, Ole Miss possesses a massive advantage in the run game.
As for the Tulane offense, the Green Wave met little resistance against South Alabama, racking up 19.6 yards per pass attempt. Unlike Tulane, the Ole Miss defense received elite reinforcements this offseason. The defense returned nine players with at least 350 snaps, with elite transfers John Saunders, Monty Montgomery, and Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste coming in. The Rebels also broke in five-star freshman Suntarine Perkins for 21 snaps with an awesome debut.
This defense already ranked 42nd in the country last year and now appears poised for a massive jump. Making matters worse for Tulane, starting signal caller Michael Pratt has been limited in practice this week. While Pratt remains likely to play, an injury concern raises questions for Tulane. Even with the line crossing a key number of seven, Ole Miss holds enough advantages to back here. The current spread sits at -7.5 with juice of -110 on both sides. Look for this to be a national coming-out party for Ole Miss this weekend.
Ole Miss-Tulane Week 2 Pick & Prediction: Ole Miss -7.5 -110 at FanDuel
Appalachian State-North Carolina College Football Week 2 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
App State: +740 | UNC: -1250
App State +18.5: -115 | UNC -18.5: -105
Over 61.5: -110 | Under 61.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
For updated Appalachian State-North Carolina odds and picks, click here.
When the Appalachian State Mountaineers and No. 21 UNC Tar Heels met last season, they combined to score a whopping 124 points. Both sides put at least 61 on the board as well. While such a repeat of last year’s high-scoring performance is unlikely, we don’t need these teams to equal their production from last year to cash the over — in fact, we only need them to score half of what they did in last year’s contest. UNC may have gotten better defensively during the offseason, but App State got worse, so I anticipate another high-scoring affair in Chapel Hill in Week 2.
UNC’s offense started the year off with a dominant showing against South Carolina. The Tar Heels currently rank 25th in yards per play (6.5), which is up from the 5.9 they averaged last season. Quarterback Drake Maye, who ranked 18th in passing efficiency with a 157.9 last year, got off to a great start by completing 66.7% of his passes for 8.4 yards per attempt, two touchdowns and two interceptions. The backfield, composed of British Brooks and Omarion Hampton, added another two scores and 4.8 yards per rush.
Appalachian State’s offense looked good against FCS Gardner-Webb, which is important because this is a program in transition after quarterback Chase Brice’s departure. The Mountaineers lost starting quarterback Ryan Burger to an injury early, but Joey Aguilar, a JUCO transfer, came in and completed 84.6% of his passes for 13.4 yards per attempt and four touchdowns. Replicating that success against an FBS team won’t be easy, but Aguilar was an efficient JUCO passer, so his strong showing in Week 1 wasn’t a fluke. He gets to work with a receiving corps that returns its top four options. Those four receivers combined for 12 receptions, 220 yards and three scores against UNC last year.
Both App State and UNC remain vulnerable on defense. The Mountaineers coughed up 4.8 yards per play and 24 points to FCS Gardner-Webb last week. The Tar Heels held Spencer Rattler and South Carolina to five yards per play and 17 points last week, but much of that falls on South Carolina’s empty running back room that totaled -2 yards on the ground. Rattler still averaged 9.1 yards per attempt; his Gamecocks were kept off the board by their 0-for-4 record on fourth down. Let’s hope the Mountaineers don’t meet a similar fate on Saturday.
Appalachian State-North Carolina Week 2 Pick & Prediction: Over 60.5 -110 for 1.5 Units at DraftKings
UAB-Georgia Southern College Football Week 2 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
UAB: +205 | Georgia Southern: -255
UAB +6.5: -110 | Georgia Southern -6.5: -114
Over 59.5: -110 | Under 59.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
For updated UAB-Georgia Southern odds and picks, click here.
Two of the Group of Five’s most interesting offenses will take the field in Statesboro on Saturday. Head coach Clay Helton returns for Georgia Southern after bringing the Eagles to a bowl in his first season by calling an aggressive, pass-happy offense that threw 62.8% of the time and ranked 24th in yards per play (6.1). Although quarterback Kyle Vantrease is gone, Tulsa transfer Davis Brin takes over under center. He outperformed Vantrease in passing efficiency last year with a 147.1 that ranked 36th. Georgia Southern kicked off the season by scoring 34 points and averaging 6.3 yards per play against FCS The Citadel. Brin completed 73% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt, two scores and a pick.
UAB lost several key pieces in the offseason, including star rusher DeWayne McBride, but the Blazers kept just enough pieces — and brought in an interesting new head coach — for me to trust their offense. Super Bowl-winning quarterback Trent Dilfer took over in the offseason and tabbed last year’s backup, Jacob Zeno, as the starter for UAB’s first season in the AAC. Zeno recorded a dismal passing efficiency grade of 126.5 in a limited sample last year but started this season by recording a 176.4 against FCS North Carolina A&T by completing 92.7% of his 41 passes for 7.1 yards per attempt and three touchdowns.
Both UAB and Georgia Southern play with tempo and struggle defensively. The Eagles ranked ninth in seconds per play last year (21.6). UAB ranked only 121st under the previous regime, but the Blazers worked at a much faster clip in Week 1, averaging only 26.1 seconds per play in a blowout win over an FCS team. Georgia Southern coughed up 4.2 yards per play to FCS The Citadel, much worse than UAB’s 3.3 yards per play allowed to FCS North Carolina A&T. The Eagles ended last season ranked 125th defensively in the FEI and should allow plenty of points to Dilfer’s offense.
I would have set this total up at around 62, but because UAB was such a slow-paced offense last year, some bettors likely haven’t realized how different Dilfer’s scheme should work in a competitive game. The Blazers were able to slow down and work the clock late, but they came out swinging early in Week 1. The Blazers averaged only 23.1 seconds per play on their opening two drives, and we should see more of that up-tempo pacing. Let’s buy the over 59.5 before this one ticks over the key number of 62.
UAB-Georgia Southern Week 2 Pick & Prediction: Over 59 -110 at DraftKings
Texas-Alabama College Football Week 2 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Texas: +225 | Alabama: -275
Texas +7: -110 | Alabama -7: -110
Over 55.5: -110 | Under 55.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
For updated Texas-Alabama odds and picks, click here.
Perhaps no game means more in Week 2 than this one. The No. 11 Texas Longhorns will visit the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide one year after nearly beating them in Austin — despite losing starting quarterback Quinn Ewers to an injury partway through the game. Alabama closed as a 21-point road favorite for that game, and the total ended up at 64.5. Alabama failed to cover, winning by a single point, while the two teams easily cashed the under by combining for only 39 points in the Texas heat. This year, Alabama is only a 7-to-7.5-point home favorite, while the total clocks in at only 56.5. That number still might not be low enough.
Both Texas and Alabama have stingy defenses. The Crimson Tide ranked fourth in yards allowed per play last year (4.5) and are off to a strong start, allowing only 3.3 yards per play to Middle Tennessee State in Week 1. Likewise, the Longhorns ranked 16th (4.8) and gave up just 3.3 yards per play to Rice in Week 1. While shutting down borderline-FCS programs isn’t all that impressive, it’s also worth noting how much both teams ran the ball. The Tide ran 60.6% of the time while Texas ran 50.7% of the time. Gameplans may change against stronger opposition, but the Tide are likely to run at a similar rate with dual-threat quarterback Jalen Milroe under center.
While both Texas and Alabama did plenty of damage on offense in Week 1, one can’t help but wonder how much better those units could’ve looked. Alabama averaged 6.5 yards per play against an MTSU defense that allowed 5.4 last year — even UTSA racked up 7.2 yards per play against them that season. Likewise, Texas averaged only 5.9 yards per play against a Rice defense that allowed 6.5 last year, including 9.3 to USC and 7.2 to UTSA. Ewers and Milroe looked good but not great. Although this year’s total is down by almost 10 points, some downtick was inevitable because of Bryce Young’s departure, and the books may still not have adjusted enough from last year’s far-too-high number.
Some trends point to value on the under as well. Since head coach Steve Sarkisian’s arrival in 2021, Texas is 15-11 (57.7%) to the under and 3-0 to the under as a road underdog. Alabama is 15-14 (51.7%) to the under and 7-8 (53.3%) to the under as a home favorite through that same span, which is a meaningful one to use because Sarkisian had been the program’s offensive coordinator from 2019 to 2020. Although the public may anticipate a high-scoring game in Tuscaloosa, these teams ranked fourth and 11th in the FEI defensively last year, and those units could steal the show again this year.
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Texas-Alabama Week 2 Pick & Prediction: Under 55.5 -110 at FanDuel
Auburn-California College Football Week 2 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Auburn: -265 | Cal: +215
Auburn -6.5: -110 | Cal +6.5: -110
Over 56.5: -105 | Under 56.5: -115
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
For updated Auburn-California odds and picks, click here.
The Auburn Tigers had a terrible start to the 2022 campaign, but they came out swinging under new head coach Hugh Freeze in Week 1. The Tigers throttled the UMass Minutemen, who had just earned some media attention after taking down New Mexico State in Week 0, by a 45-point margin. They have a road date scheduled against the Cal Golden Bears up next. Cal is coming off a dominant win as well, scoring a 37-point road victory over North Texas in Week 1, but the Golden Bears benefited from a ton of turnovers and didn’t run away with things until the second half.
This is a prime buy-low spot for the Tigers. Their dismal 5-7 campaign in 2022 has much of the public skeptical, but let’s not forget that Auburn still ranked 38th in the FEI, which puts them far ahead of 74th-ranked Cal. The Tigers started Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne in Week 1, who ranked a dismal 73rd in passing efficiency at 131.2 after posting a much more respectable 148.1 in 2021. Getting Thorne was one of several offseason wins the Tigers recorded under Freeze. The Tigers also picked up boundary receiver Shane Hooks, who led Jackson State in receiving last year, and Jyaire Shorter, North Texas’ second-leading receiver and leading touchdown scorer.
Cal is likely better than last season, but the Golden Bears are trusting too many mediocre guys on offense for me to justify not backing Auburn here. Quarterback Jack Plummer is gone, replaced by NC State transfer Ben Finley. Finley wasn’t the starter at NC State last year but instead was a backup who saw action in three games. Finley completed 52.8% of his passes for six yards per attempt, three touchdowns and three interceptions, good for an atrocious passing efficiency grade of 106.6. He recorded a solid 143.3 in Week 1 against North Texas by completing 70.6% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt, one touchdown and one interception, but I’m still not impressed by him.
Auburn has a leg up defensively with an aggressive pass rush that is loaded with transfer talent and an aggressive secondary. The Tigers racked up four sacks and seven tackles for loss along with two takeaways, both by safety Jaylin Simpson. Defensive coordinator Ron Roberts, who joined the Tigers after leading Baylor’s defense for the last three seasons, has put together a scary unit that will cause problems for the Golden Bears. Baylor ranked 48th (5.3), 22nd (5) and 52nd (5.4) in yards allowed per play under Roberts. Let’s sell high on Cal and buy low on Auburn in Week 2 with this college football prediction.
Auburn-California Week 2 Pick & Prediction: Auburn -6.5 -110 for 1.5 Units at BetMGM
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