The college football season rolls on with a high-powered Week 7 slate. We’ve got plenty of marquee games along with a busy weekday schedule. As always, I’ve got at least one pick for each day of the week. Without further ado, let’s dive into my college football Week 7 predictions so that we can talk about the best Week 7 picks for Tulane-Memphis, UCLA-Oregon State, USC-Notre Dame and more college football action.
College Football Week 7 Predictions: Picks for Tulane-Memphis, UCLA-Oregon State, USC-Notre Dame & More
UCLA-Oregon State College Football Week 7 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
UCLA: +146 | Oregon St: -178
UCLA +3.5: -105 | Oregon St -3.5: -115
Over 53.5: -110 | Under 53.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Saturday, Oct. 14 at 6:30 p.m. ET
The No. 18 UCLA Bruins will head north for a road date with the No. 15 Oregon State Beavers. Although head coach Jonathan Smith’s near-immaculate 14-1 record at home since 2021 makes trusting the Beavers on the moneyline look like a sharp bet, I’m pivoting away from that and toward the total for a game that will probably have to get played in wet conditions. As of Monday, the National Weather Service called “rain likely” on Saturday night. October is usually the start of the rainy season in Corvallis, with the city averaging 3.5 inches of rain that month.
There are plenty of reasons to back the under beyond the weather. The total sits at a surprisingly high 54 in some spots. Although UCLA uses a fast-paced defense, the Bruins are still running the ball more than they’re passing it, and their offense ranks only 50th in yards per play (5.6). They’ll line up against a slow-paced, run-heavy Oregon State offense that, although 15th in yards per play (6.7), ranks 101st in seconds per play (28) and 36th in rushing play percentage (54.6%).
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The Beavers’ run-heavy attack, which has relied on the three-headed monster of quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei and running backs Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick, will run into some problems on Saturday. UCLA ranks second in both yards (1.7) and expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush attempt. The Bruins held the Utah Utes to 2.1 yards per rush attempt three weeks ago, and they held the Washington State Cougars to just 0.6 last weekend. Oregon State may need to try passing a bit more, which, due to Uiagalelei’s inefficiency and the wet weather, might not work out.
Oregon State’s defense isn’t as impressive as UCLA’s, but it has been effective against the run. The Beavers rank 34th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.5) and 55th in EPA allowed per rush. The Beavers let the Cal Golden Bears average 7.3 on the ground in Berkeley last week, but they had held Utah to 1.8 when playing at home a week before. Oregon State’s defense ranks seventh in yards allowed per rush attempt at home (1.9). If the weather holds both passing games back, this one should easily stay under the 54.
UCLA-Oregon State College Football Week 7 Pick & Prediction: Under 54 -110 at Caesars Sportsbook
USC-Notre Dame College Football Week 7 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
USC: +106 | Notre Dame: -128
USC +2.5: -110 | Notre Dame -2.5: -110
Over 61.5: -110 | Under 61.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Saturday, Oct. 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET
In one of the slate’s marquee matchups, the No. 10 USC Trojans will visit the No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Irish just lost to Louisville last weekend, and, despite making a splash in the offseason to acquire quarterback Sam Hartman, their playoff hopes are almost certainly dashed. At 6-0, USC can still make it, but they currently trail two Pac-12 teams in the AP Poll. The Trojans will need another excellent performance from star quarterback and future first-overall pick Caleb Williams, but the Notre Dame passing defense will be by far his hardest test of the short season.
Williams has some very impressive stats, to be sure. He ranks second in yards per pass attempt (10.9) and first in passing efficiency (205.7). He has completed a whopping 71.7% of his passes and has added 124 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. However, a quick look at his opponents — San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona — reveals that he has yet to face a real defense. All of those teams rank outside the top 50 in defense in the FEI, and all but two of them rank outside the top 90. Notre Dame ranks 15th.
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Unlike Williams, Hartman has faced some real defenses, but the results haven’t been pretty. He ranks a solid 19th in yards per pass attempt (9.4) and 16th in passing efficiency (168.6), which is good, but almost none of that production has come against Power 5 competition. He is averaging just seven yards per attempt and owns a passing efficiency grade of 121.1 when facing Power 5 competition. Fortunately, he’ll now get to tee off against a USC defense that ranks a not-so-great 57th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.3) — but that’s still better than two Power 5 defenses he has faced so far, Louisville (7.5) and NC State (7.6).
I don’t put all of Hartman’s problems on him. Head coach Marcus Freeman lost my trust when he called multiple passing plays late in the Ohio State game that allowed the Buckeyes to get the ball back. Hartman is a much better quarterback than he can show in this scheme, which will hold the offense back. Likewise, USC’s offense hasn’t faced a real defense this year. Utah, Oregon State and Washington State were all able to hold USC to under 30 points last season, and I expect a similar performance from Notre Dame this weekend. I’m playing the under for anything above 60 for a half unit.
USC-Notre Dame College Football Week 7 Pick & Prediction: Under 61.5 -110 at FanDuel
Liberty-Jacksonville State College Football Week 7 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Liberty: -250 | Jacksonville St: +202
Liberty -6.5: -108 | Jacksonville St. +6.5: -112
Over 56.5: -110 | Under 56.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Tuesday, Oct. 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET
For updated Liberty-Jacksonville State odds and picks, click here!
We’ve got more mid-week CUSA action in store from Tuesday through Friday, and, while the games certainly aren’t good, it’s better than no football. Tuesday’s contest, between the 5-0 Liberty Flames and the 5-1 Jacksonville State Gamecocks, stands out as a sharp spot to fade a team that has far overperformed, and, at this point, is fair to call lucky. Jacksonville State has staged a pair of second-half comebacks over the last two games, which, while impressive, required some luck. Jacksonville State ranks 14th in luck headed into Week 7.
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The Gamecocks’ luck should run out against the Flames. The books expect it to happen, as Liberty is trading as a 6-point favorite. But there are more factors at play here than just luck — Jacksonville State has relied on a fast-paced, run-heavy offense that Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell has seen before. The Gamecocks are coached by Rich Rodriguez, who spent one season as the assistant head coach and offensive coordinator at Louisiana-Monroe. Chadwell, then the head coach at Coastal Carolina, scored a 53-point home win over ULM that year.
Unlike the rest of Jacksonville State’s CUSA opponents, Liberty will be fully prepared for what’s in store come Tuesday night: lots of designed quarterback runs and plenty of scrambling. Liberty may rank only 69th in yards per rush attempt allowed (4.2), but Chadwell’s slow-paced, run-heavy offensive scheme excels at keeping opposing teams off the field. Liberty ranks 117th in seconds per play (28.9) and 32nd in plays allowed per game (65.2). If the Flames can score early, expect them to milk the clock to keep the surprisingly potent Jacksonville State offense off the field. I put the Liberty moneyline in a five-team, two-pick round-robin play for this week.
Liberty-Jacksonville State College Football Week 7 Pick & Prediction: Liberty ML -245 (Round Robin)
Coastal Carolina-Appalachian State College Football Week 7 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Coastal: +205 | App State: -255
Coastal +6.5: -115 | App State -6.5: -105
Over 61.5: -110 | Under 61.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Tuesday, Oct. 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET
For updated Coastal Carolina-Appalachian State odds and picks, click here!
The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers head north to Boone for a date with the Appalachian State Mountaineers. Although App State lost its starting quarterback Ryan Burger to an injury in Week 1, backup Joey Aguilar has looked impressive ever since. It’s unclear whether App State will trust the hot hand in Aguilar on Tuesday, as Burger has since returned to practice, but they should have a sizeable leg up on the Chants regardless of who starts. Aguilar has completed 58.3% of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempt and a passing efficiency grade of 127.6. His lone home start saw him earn a grade of 155.7 against East Carolina.
The Chants have looked awful under new head coach Tim Beck. Grayson McCall, who remains the single-season record holder in passing efficiency, just played the worst game of his career in his last start. He threw a career-high four interceptions in a road game against Georgia Southern, completing only 56.4% of his throws for 7.7 yards per pass attempt and a passing efficiency grade of 108.8. McCall already has six interceptions this year, nearly double the eight he had amassed in three prior seasons as Coastal’s starter. The Chants are winless in Sun Belt play, and the books expect them to remain winless.
Coastal and Beck have become overly reliant upon McCall. Before, when Jamey Chadwell was still in town, the Chants had an effective passing game because opposing teams had to respect the run. Coastal ran 57% of the time last year, but this year, they’re running just 45% of the time. Worse, when they do run, they’re averaging only 3.6 yards per attempt. They’ll now have to face an App State defense that ranks 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.4). Coastal couldn’t beat Sun Belt defenses that were giving up 7.5-plus yards per pass attempt with Beck’s scheme, so I don’t expect them to suddenly turn things around against a better unit.
Coastal Carolina-Appalachian State College Football Week 7 Pick & Prediction: App State ML -245 (Round Robin) at DraftKings
Sam Houston State-New Mexico State College Football Week 7 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Sam Houston St: +146 | NMSU: -176
Sam Houston St +3.5: -110 | NMSU -3.5: -110
Over 41.5: -115 | Under 41.5: -105
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Wednesday, Oct. 11 at 9 p.m. ET
For updated Sam Houston State-New Mexico State odds and picks, click here!
Dear God. Two of the FBS’ absolute worst teams will square off on Wednesday night, and I sincerely hope that you have something better to do than watch — or bet on — this game. I don’t, though, which is why I’m putting the New Mexico State Aggies in my moneyline round-robin for this week. The Sam Houston State Bearkats are an absolute joke: they rank 133rd on offense in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and 132nd in yards per play (3.8). The Bearkats run a slow-paced but balanced offensive scheme and lean on their defense, which is far better than their offense, to win. It hasn’t worked against anyone yet this season, though, and they are now 0-5.
New Mexico State isn’t good, but there are at least some signs of life on this team. Quarterback Diego Pavia ranks eighth in yards per pass attempt (10.4) and 13th in passing efficiency (174.4). Their offense may rank only 115th in the FEI, but the Aggies are seventh in yards per play (7.1). Further, unlike the Bearkats, the Aggies have actually won games this year. After suffering a brutal Week 0 loss to UMass, New Mexico State has taken down FCS Western Illinois, New Mexico and Florida International so far. They are 2-1 at home and 6-3 at home under head coach Jerry Kill. Kill is 5-2 as a home favorite, which isn’t great, but considering Sam Houston State is yet to win a game this year, it’s not terrible.
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The books put the spread for this one at just 3.5, with New Mexico State listed at -170 on the moneyline. I’m not sure what anyone has seen out of Sam Houston State thus far to justify listing them at that number. Sure, they almost knocked off Jacksonville State before a massive second-half and overtime collapse, and sure, they challenged Liberty early before collapsing after the first quarter, but neither of those performances gives me any confidence in their ability to win or cover. Sam Houston State’s inability to move the ball on offense will keep them winless for another week. For access to the rest of the round-robin picks, check out OddsShopper Insider Access!
Sam Houston State-New Mexico State College Football Week 7 Pick & Prediction: NMSU ML -170 (Round Robin) at DraftKings
West Virginia-Houston College Football Week 7 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
West Virginia: -142 | Houston: +118
West Virginia -2.5: -115 | Houston +2.5: -105
Over 51.5: -110 | Under 51.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Thursday, Oct. 12 at 7 p.m. ET
For updated West Virginia-Houston odds and picks, click here!
The Power Five returns to action on Thursday with a pretty unremarkable Big 12 contest. The West Virginia Mountaineers, one of two remaining undefeated teams in conference play, will visit the Houston Cougars. They are slight road favorites for the matchup, but I’m not buying into them this year — Houston isn’t good, but West Virginia isn’t, either. The Mountaineers don’t have a good option at quarterback.
The two quarterbacks at West Virginia’s disposal, starter Garrett Greene and backup Nicco Marchiol, have struggled. Greene owns a passing efficiency grade of 139.6 through 68 attempts, which, while not terrible, is above his career average (126.8) and largely stems from his beatdown of FCS Duquesne. He is yet to throw a touchdown against an FBS opponent this year. Marchiol has a 103.4 and recorded sub-100 grades against Duquesne and Texas Tech.
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Houston isn’t good, but at least the Cougars have a starting quarterback — and they have a sizeable advantage over the Mountaineers on offense. Starter Donovan Smith owns a passing efficiency grade of 135.9, and, unlike Greene, has thrown multiple touchdowns against FBS competition this year. He just tossed four against Texas Tech last week. Houston ranks 63rd in yards per play (5.4), far ahead of 121st-ranked West Virginia (4.3).
To be fair to West Virginia, the Mountaineers have an edge on defense, as they rank 32nd in yards allowed per play (5), far ahead of the 85th-ranked Cougars (5.8) — but we’re fading WVU head coach Neal Brown on the road. He has gone 8-16 SU and 11-13 ATS in road games since taking the helm in 2019. Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen may be only 13-10 SU and 8-15 ATS at home since taking over, but with WVU ranked fourth in luck and Houston 94th, regression favors the Cougars. Back them to cover.
West Virginia-Houston College Football Week 7 Pick & Prediction: Houston +3 -115 at Bet365
Tulane-Memphis College Football Week 7 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Tulane: -176 | Memphis: +146
Tulane -3.5: -110 | Memphis +3.5: -110
Over 56.5: -110 | Under 56.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Friday, Oct. 13 at 7 p.m. ET
For updated Tulane-Memphis odds and picks, click here!
Friday brings us a three-game college football card that, aside from this game, looks pretty terrible. The Fresno State Bulldogs are a 6-point road favorite over the Utah State Aggies, and the Colorado Buffaloes are a 12-point home favorite over the Stanford Cardinal. If you want to watch a competitive football game on Friday, this AAC battle between the Tulane Green Wave and Memphis Tigers is your best bet. Tulane is a 3.5-point road favorite, but I think the market is still overestimating them after their shockingly good season in 2022. Tulane is just 2-3 ATS this year. Memphis is even worse at 1-3-1, but their lone failure to cover as a dog came by the hook.
When these teams met last season, Tulane scored a 10-point home win. Memphis staged a late-game comeback but fell short of completing it, and the Green Wave had held them scoreless through the first half. I don’t expect a similar outcome this season: the Tigers are averaging the 42nd-most yards per play (5.8) and, while they rank 104th in yards allowed per play (6.2), the gap between these teams isn’t as wide as it was last year. Tulane’s run-heavy scheme will make covering difficult, as the Green Wave have much less efficient options in the backfield this year after losing Tyjae Spears to the NFL draft.
Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan has led a solid passing offense this year. Henigan ranks 43rd in yards per pass attempt (7.9) and 40th in passing efficiency (147.7). Those are worse numbers than Tulane’s starter, Michael Pratt, who is unranked because of a multi-game absence but has recorded 11 yards per attempt and a passing efficiency grade of 207.4. However, Pratt’s career home-away splits are notable: he averages just 7.1 yards per attempt and owns a passing efficiency grade of just 131.9 when playing outside of New Orleans.
With Tulane on the road for this one, Pratt’s road struggles should continue. The last time he started in Memphis, he completed only 44.1% of his passes for 4.3 yards per attempt and a passing efficiency grade of 78.4. He has yet to play a road game this season. Even in his impressive 2022 campaign, Pratt made just four road starts, and those included three of his worst five performances. Tulane may be 6-0 ATS on the road since 2022, but without Spears, Pratt won’t have NFL-level talent present in the backfield to bail him out.
Tulane-Memphis College Football Week 7 Pick & Prediction: Memphis +3.5 -110 at Bet365
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