The No. 17 TCU Horned Frogs are coming off a National Championship Game appearance, but I’m just not buying into their preseason hype. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 1 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Colorado-TCU betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 1 bet!
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Colorado-TCU Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 1
Colorado-TCU Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Colorado: +720 | TCU: -1200
Colorado +20.5: -105 | TCU -20.5: -115
Over 63.5: -110 | Under 63.5: -110
Colorado-TCU Pick & Prediction
The same bet we got our action down on in the early week column remains available, so pounce on it before it disappears. We bought Colorado as a 20.5-point underdog at odds of -105 (51.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook for a variety of reasons that we’ll discuss below. The utter lack of line movement shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the books likely picked up plenty of action on this game from sharps looking ahead to this one seeking to fade Coach Prime — but I’m not convinced that’s the sharp side of this matchup.
In one of the most anticipated games of Week 1, the Colorado Buffaloes, now coached by Deion Sanders, will take on the TCU Horned Frogs, who just went to the National Championship Game. Neither team will look much like it did last season. Colorado turned over almost its entire roster as Sanders brought both new recruits and his players from Jackson State. TCU lost several big names, including quarterback Max Duggan, wide receiver Quentin Johnston, and running backs Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado. Last year’s Week 1 starter, Chandler Morris, looks like the Week 1 starter again this year — but that might not go so well for the Frogs.
TCU’s quarterback was solid in limited action in 2021 but regressed in 2022. Morris failed to lead a single scoring drive in the first half against Colorado in Week 1 of last season — TCU’s only first half points came from a punt return. That’s especially egregious because Colorado ended the year ranked 130th in yards allowed per play at 7.2. He now owns a career passing efficiency grade of 148. Morris gets to work with some talented transfers, like big-bodied boundary receiver Warren Thompson from Arkansas and shifty slot receiver John Paul Richardson from Oklahoma State, but I’m having a hard time getting that excited about TCU’s offense this year.
The Buffaloes are far from perfect themselves, but we don’t need them to be when the spread is this wide. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders, son of Deion, will lead this offense. He completed 68.4% of his passes for 6,963 passing yards and 70 touchdowns across two FCS seasons, good for a career passing efficiency grade of 156.3. While he’ll have to play some far more challenging defenses, he’ll also benefit from working with offensive coordinator Sean Lewis, whose Kent State Golden Flashes ranked 21st in yards per pass attempt with Dustin Crum at the helm in 2021. His offense ranked fifth in the metric in 2020 as well. However, Lewis couldn’t replicate that success in 2022 with Collin Schlee at the helm, so he’ll need Sanders to hold up his end of the bargain.
Last year’s meeting of these teams, which was played at Colorado, saw TCU close as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 59.5. The Horned Frogs have gained an extra 7 points while the total has moved by only one. While sharp bettors are right to be suspicious of new head coach Deion Sanders and his entirely unproven Buffaloes, they might not be sufficiently suspicious of TCU’s ability to replicate last season’s success. The Frogs were by far the luckiest team in the FBS last year, finishing with a luck score of +3.3. Let’s bet on some regression and back the Buffaloes to cover a spread that is far too wide.
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Colorado-TCU Week 1 Pick & Prediction: Colorado +20.5 -105 at FanDuel
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