After finishing the regular season 10-3, the Louisville Cardinals take on the 7-5 USC Trojans as touchdown favorites in a game with a 58.0-point total. Let’s dive into our Louisville-USC odds, pick and prediction for this year’s Holiday Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
Holiday Bowl Pick: Louisville-USC Bet
Holiday Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
Louisville: -280 | USC: +230
Louisville -7.0: -110 | USC +7.0: -110
Over 58.0: -110 | Under 58.0: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Wednesday, Dec. 27 at 8:00 p.m. ET
Louisville-USC News & Notes
Louisville Absences: RB Jahwar Jordan, WR Jamari Thrash, S Josh Minkins, Edge Kameron Wilson
Louisville Coaching Changes: N/A
USC Absences: QB Caleb Williams, RB Marshawn Lloyd, WR Brendan Rice, WR Michael Jackson III, WR Raleek Brown, OL Michael Tarquin, WR Mario Williams, TE Jude Wolfe, S Calen Bullock, DL De’Jon Benton, LB Tackett Curtis, QB Malachi Nelson
USC Coaching Changes: DC Alex Grinch
Louisville-USC Comparison
| Metric | Louisville | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 94th | 42nd |
| Overall Offense | 40th | 20th |
| Run Blocking | 70th | 55th |
| Pass Blocking | 35th | 26th |
| Pass Rate | 85th | 64th |
| Overall Defense | 19th | 85th |
| Run Defense | 30th | 77th |
| Pass Rush | 14th | 23rd |
| Coverage | 31st | 103th |
Holiday Bowl Pick & Prediction
One of the more interesting bowls, ACC runner-up Louisville takes on a rebuilding USC Trojans as touchdown favorites. Both teams will deal with their fair share of opt outs, but the offenses each have enough talent to put up points. In an interesting clash of styles, this game will come down the play of replacements.
Starting with Louisville’s offense, the Cardinals will retain quarterback Jack Plummer in this game. The veteran pocket passer completed 62.7% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt, 21 scores, and 16 turnover worthy plays this year. Unfortunately, he will play this game without his top two skill players in receiver Jamari Thrash and running back Jahwar Jordan, who both declared for the NFL Draft. Fortunately, the offensive line remains a strength and Isaac Guerendo averages six yards per carry on an increased workload down the stretch.
They also face a non-existent USC defense that lost a few starters to the transfer portal. USC will not have their new staff as part of bowl preparations and the team battled multiple injuries down the stretch, including Ceyair Wright, Jacobe Covington, Zion Branch, and Domani Jackson, on top of their portal departures. It remains to be seen, who will be healthy enough to play, but Louisville likely finds enough success to move the ball here.
As for USC’s offense, the Trojans lost Caleb Williams to the NFL Draft and five star freshman Malachi Nelson entered the transfer portal. This leaves veteran Miller Moss as the presumed starter. While inexperienced, Moss remains an elite recruit with elite weapons. Marshawn Lloyd, Brendan Rice, and Michael Jackson III will miss this game. However, Austin Jones averages over 5.0 yards per carry over the last two years. USC also retains elite receivers Tahj Washington, Dorian Singer, and Zacharian Branch behind a strong offensive line.
Louisville’s defense looks good on paper, but this team faced the weakest level of competition in the ACC. The Cardinals allowed over 30 points for Miami and Kentucky in two of their final three games. Aside from that, they faced third string quarterback Brock Glenn in the ACC title game, potentially inflating their defensive metrics. As long as Moss can play competent football, USC should also find some offensive success. With both offenses capable of moving the ball, the over looks like the most intriguing play here.
Holiday Bowl Pick & Prediction and our Louisville-USC Bet: over 58.0 (-110) at bet365
