We won our Ohio-Buffalo MACtion bet on Tuesday, and I’m eager to roll over the momentum from yesterday into today. We have another three-game card on tap tonight, but one game stands above the rest in terms of value. Let’s dig into today’s Eastern Michigan-Toledo odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 11 bet for Wednesday’s MACtion! As always, make sure to check out OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages to ensure you get the best deal on the market.
Eastern Michigan-Toledo Pick & Prediction for Wednesday MACtion
Eastern Michigan-Toledo Odds
Odds via BetMGM
EMU: +750 | Toledo: -1200
EMU +19.5: -110 | Toledo -19.5: -110
Over 46.5: -115 | Under 46.5: -105
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Wednesday, Nov. 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Eastern Michigan-Toledo Pick & Prediction
The Toledo Rockets, odds-on favorites to win the Mid-American Conference this year, will take on the lowly Eastern Michigan Eagles this week. The Rockets are a massive 19.5-point favorite for what the books expect to devolve into a blowout. The weather could provide some complications, however, as there is a 50% chance of rain, per the National Weather Service.
I don’t expect much scoring in this spot. Toledo is 4-5 to the under this year while Eastern Michigan is 6-3. The two teams are a flat 5-5 to the under in conference play. However, Eastern Michigan can’t score on the road and is 3-1 to the under in away games.
I don’t expect a ton of scoring in this one for several reasons, but I can’t point to offensive inefficiency from Toledo as one of them. The Rockets rank a steady 13th in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense. Quarterback De’Quan Finn is averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt and owns a passing efficiency grade of 146.4. However, it’s worth noting that the Rockets rank 65th in seconds per pay (26) and have slowed down over their last three contests (26.6), two of which they won after opening out to big first-half leads. Finn has been supported by the 26th-ranked defense by EPA allowed per play.
Eastern Michigan’s offensive inefficiency is a reason I’m buying the under. The Eagles rank 126th in EPA per play on offense. They used three quarterbacks last week, including starter Austin Smith, all of whom struggled. Smith is averaging only 6.2 yards per pass attempt and owns a passing efficiency grade of 114.5. Those numbers dip to 5.6 and 100 when he plays on the road. The silver lining for EMU is that the defense ranks 27th in EPA allowed per dropback and 14th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.2), so they should be able to challenge Finn somewhat.
When these teams met in Ypsilanti last season, they combined to score 51 points. This year, the books have set the total to 46.5. I think that number is a squeeze high. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) projects this one for only 28.5 points, while Parker Fleming’s model lists it right at 45.5. You’ll find the under 46.5 priced at -105 on BetMGM and pretty much nowhere else, so take advantage of the off-market number over there. If you’re a new customer at BetMGM, check out our BetMGM bonus code for free OddsShopper Premium and your first bet paid back as a bonus bet up to $1,500!
Eastern Michigan-Toledo Pick & Prediction: Under 46.5 -105 at BetMGM
