The AAC champion SMU Mustangs (11-2) take on the 6-6 Boston College Eagles as 10-point favorites in a game with a 49.0-point total. Let’s dive into our SMU-Boston College odds, pick and prediction for this year’s Fenway Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
Fenway Pick: SMU-Boston College Bet
Fenway Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
SMU: -380 | Boston College: +300
SMU -10.0: -110 | Boston College +10.0: -110
Over 49.0: -110 | Under 49.0: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Thursday, Dec. 28 at 11:00 a.m. ET
SMU-Boston College News & Notes
SMU Absences: QB Preston Stone, WR Jordan Kerley
SMU Coaching Changes: N/A
Boston College Absences: RB Pat Garwo, RB Xavier Coleman, RB Cam Barfield, WR Ryan O’Keefe, WR Taji Johnson, WR Jaden Williams, TE George Takacs, CB Elijah Jones, CB CJ Clinkscales, LB Shitta Sillah
Boston College Coaching Changes: N/A
SMU-Boston College Comparison
| Metric | SMU | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 33rd | 62nd |
| Overall Offense | 10th | 83rd |
| Run Blocking | 8th | 25th |
| Pass Blocking | 14th | 17th |
| Pass Rate | 91st | 113th |
| Overall Defense | 9th | 108th |
| Run Defense | 23rd | 78th |
| Pass Rush | 4th | 123rd |
| Coverage | 13th | 102nd |
Fenway Bowl Pick & Prediction
This is a tricky bowl game to evaluate. Boston College will deal with more departures in this game, but SMU lost its most valuable player in Preston Stone to close the year. The real question in this game comes down to backup quarterback Kevin Jennings and his ability to run an offense.
Jennings has completed 64.9% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt, four touchdowns and two turnover-worthy plays in a limited sample. He has 91 rushing yards, but again, small sample. Fortunately, he has everything in place to success. His offensive line only allows pressure on 19.7% of his dropbacks, his receiving room goes six deep and SMU has utilized five running backs over the course of the season.
Better yet, Jennings also faces the 108th-ranked Boston College defense that lost corner Elijah Jones and linebacker Shitta Sillah to the transfer portal. This team also missed Jalen Cheek and Cole Batson in its season finale, which could further weaken the defense. Regardless, Boston College allowed 40-plus points in two of its final three games. Its other opponents in the latter half of the year included UConn, Syracuse and Pittsburgh, and both Syracuse and Pittsburgh used backup quarterbacks in that game.
Offensively, the Eagles were below full strength far before the portal opened up. They lost receiver Ryan O’Keefe, tight end George Takacs and running back Pat Garwo to season-ending injuries. Since then, their depth has been hit by the portal, but quarterback Tom Castellanos remains. Castellanos is mainly known for his mobility and rushed for 957 yards this year while completing just 56.9% of his passes for 6.8 yards per attempt. His favorite target, Lewis Bond, should play, but their work could be cut out for them against SMU’s defense.
It should be noted that the AAC was one of the weaker conferences this year and SMU played an easy schedule within the conference. However, its ninth-ranked defense held Oklahoma to 28 points and Tulane to 26 points. Memphis, TCU and Rice did find some success against this unit, but SMU overachieved overall. It also ranks 23rd against the run, which will be key against Boston College’s run-based offense.
Wasabi Fenway Bowl Pick & Prediction and our SMU-Boston College Bet: SMU -10.0 (-110) at bet365
