After finishing the regular season 6-6, the Rice Owls take on the 7-5 Texas State Bobcats as 3.5-point underdogs in a game with a 59.0-point total. Let’s dive into our Texas State-Rice odds, pick and prediction for this year’s First Responder Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
First Responder Pick: Texas State-Rice Bet
First Responder Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
Texas State: -180 | Rice: +150
Texas State -3.5: -110 | Rice +3.5: -110
Over 59.0: -110 | Under 59.0: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Tuesday, Dec. 26 at 5:30 p.m. ET
Texas State-Rice News & Notes
Texas State Absences: RB Calvin Hill, S Tory Spears
Texas State Coaching Changes: N/A
Rice Absences: QB JT Daniels, TE Jack Bradley
Rice Coaching Changes: N/A
Texas State-Rice Comparison
| Metric | Texas State | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 12th | 106th |
| Overall Offense | 46th | 77th |
| Run Blocking | 99th | 88th |
| Pass Blocking | 59th | 116th |
| Pass Rate | 74th | 11th |
| Overall Defense | 61st | 84th |
| Run Defense | 68th | 97th |
| Pass Rush | 15th | 90th |
| Coverage | 66th | 55th |
First Responder Bowl Pick & Prediction
After a 4-6 start to the season, Rice rallied in their final two games to reach bowl eligibility, despite losing their starting quarterback. On the other side, Texas State orchestrated one of the top G5 offenses in the country under new head coach GJ Kinne. While both teams remain fairly intact, Texas State should enter this game as the healthier team.
Starting with Rice, the Owls lost starting quarterback JT Daniels to injury mid-season. With Daniels medically retiring, Rice should continue with AJ Padgett under center. Mostly a pocket passer, Padgett has a 63.5% completion percentage for 6.5 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns, and nine turnover worthy plays. He also plays behind a questionable offensive line, allowing a 30.6% pressure rate. Rice does have a pair of elite skill position players in running back Dean Conners and Luke McCaffrey, but that has only been able to carry them so far in the latter half of the season.
On the other side, Texas State has been a shootout team all season. The Bobcats do have a top 15 pass rush, but they’ve allowed at least 30 points in five straight games. Overall, Rice plays in a weaker conference and has only reached the 30 point mark once in their last five games. While they should find some success, the Texas State pass rush should also get home against a non-mobile signal caller.
As for Texas State, this offense comes loaded with elite skill players. TJ Finley operates as the main quarterback, but Malik Hornsby comes in for packages to use his elite mobility. The team also has 1,000 yard rusher Ismail Mahdi running behind a strong G5 offensive line. As for pass catchers, Joey Hobert, Ashtyn Hawkins, and Kole Wilson combined for 2,363 yards. Hobert missed Texas State’s final game, but nearly a month off should benefit him ahead of the bowl game.
As for the Rice defense, the Owls have stood up reasonably well in coverage, but they rank 97th in run defense. This mismatch has been Rice’s downfall multiple times this year and projects to be a major weakness in this matchup. With Texas State holding advantages on both sides of the ball, they should be able to continue their late season success here.
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Pick & Prediction and our Texas State-Rice Bet: Texas State -3.5 (-110) at bet365
