The Florida International Panthers will take on the Sam Houston State Bearkats in a midweek college football matchup that will leave you thinking: “Well, at least it’s football on a Wednesday!” Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Tuesday and provide an update before each game. Let’s dig into today’s Florida International-Sam Houston odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 8 bet! As always, make sure to check out OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages to ensure you get the best deal on the market.
Florida International-Sam Houston Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 8
Florida International-Sam Houston Betting Odds
Odds via Bet365
FIU: +180 | Sam Houston: -220
FIU +5.5: -110 | Sam Houston -5.5: -110
Over 42: -110 | Under 42: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Wednesday, Oct. 18 at 7 p.m. ET
Florida International-Sam Houston Pick & Prediction
Wednesday’s contest between the Florida International Panthers and Sam Houston State Bearkats should be competitive. The books list the spread at 5.5, which is one of the narrowest numbers on the midweek slate. However, bettors expecting a good game should temper their expectations substantially. FIU ranks 130th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and owns the 120th-ranked offense. Sam Houston State ranks 121st with the 133rd-ranked offense. Unsurprisingly, the total sits all the way down at a depressing 39.5. With the other Wednesday game featuring New Mexico State (125th) and UTEP (132nd), this game is still the better one to watch.
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Florida International doesn’t do much well, but the Panthers can at least move the ball slightly better than the Bearkats. FIU’s offense ranks one spot above Sam Houston’s in the FEI (132nd). The Panthers also rank 75th in yards per play (5.3), far better than the Bearkats (4.1). FIU’s now-starting quarterback, Keyone Jenkins, ranks 68th in passing efficiency (133.5), also far better than Sam Houston State’s starter, Keegan Shoemaker (116.2). Perhaps most telling is the fact Sam Houston State’s offense has averaged only 262.2 yards per game. It’s hard to put points on the board if you can’t move the football, and you can’t win without points.
Sam Houston State does deserve some kudos for putting a viable defense on the field. The Bearkats rank 74th in yards allowed per play (5.7), which, while not great, is far better than the 114th-ranked Panthers (6.4). The Bearkats have allowed only 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 63rd, but have coughed up 4.6 yards per rush, which ranks 95th. Their poor run defense probably won’t mean much against an FIU team that averages just 3.7 yards per rush attempt, which ranks 91st, but the Panthers haven’t stopped trying to run despite their inefficient play. FIU’s balanced offense passes and runs at a roughly 50/50 split.
I’m trusting Florida International to keep this one within five points. Sam Houston State is winless this year, and while they will benefit from home-field advantage, we’re far enough into the season for the Bearkats’ embarrassing 0-6 record to have meaningful consequences for attendance, especially on a Wednesday night. While the Panthers are also winless in conference play, they at least scored three non-conference wins, beating FCS Maine, UConn and North Texas. Said in another, extremely reductive way, we’re getting a 3-4 team plus five points against an 0-6 team.
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I’m only laying a half unit on this one, but this is by far the best angle for Wednesday’s miserable card. The FEI makes the margin six, which is right on the market price, but we’re yet to see sufficient offensive production out of the Bearkats to warrant that advantage. Sam Houston ranks 133rd in expected points added (EPA) per play and 132nd in EPA per dropback, while FIU ranks 104th and 109th, respectively. That’s not good, but it’s enough for me to trust the Panthers here. You’ll find the 5.5 at pretty much every public book, so if you don’t have Bet365, try DraftKings.
FIU-Sam Houston Week 8 Pick: FIU +5.5 -110 at Bet365
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 8. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!
