The No. 5 Florida State Seminoles won last week, but at what cost? Quarterback Jordan Travis is down for the count, and the team dropped from No. 4 to No. 5 in the college football playoff rankings. Let’s dive into the Florida State-Florida betting odds for Week 13 as we discuss our pick and prediction. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football. If you’re in Florida and are looking for tips on how to bet in the Sunshine State, check out our guide here!
Florida State-Florida Pick, Prediction & Bet for Week 13
Florida State-Florida Betting Odds
Odds via bet365
Florida State: -245 | Florida: +205
Florida State -6.5: -110 | Florida +6.5: -110
Over 49: -110 | Under 49: -105
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Saturday, Nov. 25 at 7 p.m. ET
Florida State-Florida Pick & Prediction
The No. 5 Florida State Seminoles may be undefeated, but they’ll have to adjust to life without their star quarterback, Jordan Travis, in a tough road matchup with their cross-state rivals, the Florida Gators. The Gators are home dogs in this spot after a disappointing season, but I like them here.
Florida State’s offense ranks fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play, but much of that is due to their seventh-ranked passing offense. Backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker may struggle to replicate his success — he has an atrocious passing efficiency grade of 117.4 in road games over 39 pass attempts. Florida’s offense ranks only 65th in EPA per play.
A lot of college football betting comes down to motivation and narrative. Florida State has a shot at the College Football Playoff with a win on Saturday and an ACC championship game win — but they probably need Washington to lose a game. Meanwhile, Florida needs a win just to be bowl-eligible. Second-year head coach Billy Napier can salvage a bad season with an upset win on Rivalry Week, and he should have the backing of a raucous home crowd in the Swamp.
The advanced metrics say Florida State should win this one by a double-digit margin. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) projections list Florida as a 15-point underdog. Parker Fleming’s model has them as a 13-point underdog. But with Rodemaker, a career backup, making his first-ever road start, do those projections make sense? The sportsbooks disagree — they’re listing Florida as just a 6.5-point underdog.
Florida isn’t good at much, but the Gators outrank the Seminoles in one key area: run defense. Florida’s rushing defense ranks 61st in EPA per play allowed while Florida State’s ranks 95th. That’s a problem. The Gators have some terrifying running backs in Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr., both of whom are averaging five-plus yards per carry. That should help the Gators keep this one within a touchdown and possibly win outright. I have a parlay out — Florida +7.5 and Illinois moneyline — for two teams fighting desperately for bowl eligibility, but I don’t hate playing the Gators outright for a half-unit at odds of +205 on DraftKings or bet365. If you’re looking to get some action down on this game in Florida, check out our guide here!
Florida-Florida State Pick & Prediction: Florida Moneyline +205 at DraftKings
