Week 1 of the college football season will open with a bang on Thursday night. The Florida Gators will visit the No. 14 Utah Utes, and Utah quarterback Cam Rising’s status remains an open question. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 1 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Florida-Utah betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 1 bet! Also, remember to use your free 30% Florida-Utah college football profit boost at FanDuel.
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 1. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you– or try it out now!
Florida-Utah Pick, Betting Prediction & FanDuel Boost | College Football Week 1
Florida-Utah Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Florida: +168 | Utah: -205
Florida +4.5: -115 | Utah -4.5: -105
Over 44.5: -105 | Under 44.5: -115
Florida-Utah Pick & Prediction
Boy, do I have a lot to say about Thursday’s action. With Utah quarterback Cam Rising uncertain, things could get weird for the Utes. It doesn’t help that the team’s original backup quarterback, Brandon Rose, is also hurt. Utah has fluctuated between a 4.5-point and 6.5-point favorite this week. We locked in the 6.5 via the early week column, but the line has steadily moved in Florida’s favor, creeping all the way back to 4.5, which isn’t a good sign for Rising’s availability.
Rising could miss this game, and even if he plays, he probably won’t be as effective. He tore his ACL in last year’s Rose Bowl and underwent surgery in January, putting him right at the standard nine-month mark for a recovery. Rising has been a key part of Utah’s recent success — he ranked 32nd in passing efficiency last year with a 149, slightly better than the 146.7 he recorded the year before. Still, Rising’s success stemmed from his ability to move around in the pocket, which he may not be able to do as freely at the start of the year.
The Florida Gators had a season to forget last year. Despite producing a first-round draft selection at quarterback, the Gators barely achieved bowl eligibility and got stomped by the Oregon State Beavers in the Las Vegas Bowl. They’ll look to avoid a third-straight losing season with Billy Napier now in his second year as head coach. He’ll get to work with quarterback Graham Mertz, who just transferred in from Wisconsin. Mertz wasn’t great, but he still ranked 62nd in passing efficiency last year with a 135. For context, Anthony Richardson recorded a 131 and ranked 74th.
In contrast, the Utah Utes had a solid season, which was capped by two wins over USC — but they opened last year with a loss to Florida and have hemorrhaged key personnel since. Running back Tavion Thomas, who went for 1,108 yards on 5.4 yards per carry in 2021 and another 687 on 4.8 in 2022 before going down with an injury, has moved on. He accounted for 115 yards and a touchdown against Florida last season. The team’s leading receiver, star tight end Dalton Kincaid, left for the NFL. He caught only two passes for 29 yards against Florida last year, but his absence will allow the Gators to focus more attention on other offensive pieces.
There is a good argument to make that Mertz fits Napier’s offense better than Richardson. During his dominant run at Louisiana, Napier started a more traditional passer in Levi Lewis, an undersized, less athletic passer, who completed 61.2% of his career attempts. Richardson, a gifted athlete with size, speed and a strong arm completed only 53.8% of his throws in Napier’s first year at the helm. He had attempted only 66 passes at the collegiate level before Napier’s arrival. Mertz has seen action in four seasons and has tallied 773 attempts, completing 59.5% of them.
Mertz and Napier have a dangerous supporting cast with which to work. Running back Trevor Etienne, the younger brother of Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne, returns after averaging 6.2 yards from scrimmage per play. He’ll serve as a change-of-pace option alongside Montrell Johnson Jr, who averaged 5.4 yards from scrimmage per play. Johnson shredded Utah last season for 6.3 yards per carry and a touchdown. Athletic wide receiver Ricky Pearsall also returns after a 661-yard, five-touchdown season. Pearsall is a large part of why Napier’s offense still averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt, which ranked 62nd, despite Richardson’s struggles with accuracy. But because we’re now under the key number of six, I’d rather use my FanDuel profit boost to get some exposure to the Gators on the moneyline than double down on the spread.
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Florida-Utah Week 1 Pick: Florida Moneyline +168 (+220 Boosted) at FanDuel
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