Monday Night Football is in the books, and with the NFL week wrapped up, it’s time for college sports to take the spotlight. We’ve got MACtion, college basketball and plenty of other sports on the board today. Yesterday, McNeese State came through, keeping the streak alive. We’ve been on a serious heater lately, and hopefully, you’ve been along for the ride, adding to your bankroll or just enjoying the wins. Be sure to head to OddsShopper for more FREE CFB picks, expert college football picks, college football betting advice and +EV college football bets!
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Free CFB Expert Pick: Kent State +10.5 vs. Akron
Now, let’s keep this run going. I’m going straight to the MAC tonight for a game that’s extremely greasy: Kent State (+10.5, -118) at home against Akron. Yes, I laid a little extra juice, but I’m all about that value with the hook, and Akron should not be a 10.5-point road favorite against anybody.
Akron sits firmly at the bottom of the MAC. Sure, it has a couple of wins this season, but its resume is nothing to write home about. Outside the top 100 in nearly every meaningful metric, its victories include a win over Colgate (an FCS school) and a 4-point home win against Eastern Michigan.
On the road, forget it. Akron hasn’t won an away game in ages, and it has barely been competitive. Its offense struggles to move the ball effectively, with a dismal 3 yards per carry on the ground. Simply put, it doesn’t do much of anything well.
Let’s not sugarcoat it — Kent State is 0-10 and undeniably bad. It lost to an FCS team (Saint Francis of Pennsylvania) and has been blown out by powerhouses like Tennessee and Penn State. But none of that matters here. What does matter is how it has performed in the MAC.
Despite its struggles, Kent State has had no luck with the schedule, facing a brutal lineup of top-tier MAC opponents:
- Eastern Michigan: Lost by 19 but scored 33 points.
- Ball State: Narrow 2-point loss at home.
- Bowling Green, Western Michigan, Ohio, Miami of Ohio: All among the best in the MAC, and all games Kent State was expected to lose.
Now, it finally gets a home game against Akron, the only team arguably worse in the MAC.
This is a classic case of value on a bad team in the right spot. Kent State has shown it can keep games competitive at home, and I expect them to do the same tonight. The total for this game feels fair, so it’ll come down to turnovers and staying respectable on both sides of the ball. If Kent State plays clean football, 10.5 points is more than enough cushion.
This game is as greasy as it gets, but I don’t fear greasy games. If Kent State is going to win a game this season, this is their shot. Give me the Golden Flashes +10.5 at home.
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