Two potent offenses square off in Statesboro, Georgia, this evening. The Georgia State Panthers and Georgia Southern Eagles are jockeying for position in the Sun Belt East, and this game could go a long way to decide the division. Let’s dig into today’s Georgia State-Georgia Southern odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 9 bet! As always, make sure to check out OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages to ensure you get the best deal on the market.
Georgia State-Georgia Southern Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 9
Georgia State-Georgia Southern Betting Odds
Odds via bet365
Georgia State: +115 | Georgia Southern: -120
Georgia State +1: -110 | Georgia Southern -1: -110
Over 62.5: -110 | Under 62.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Thursday, Oct. 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Georgia State-Georgia Southern Pick & Prediction
Two of college football’s highest-scoring offenses will do battle on Thursday night. The Georgia State Panthers and Georgia Southern Eagles, both members of the Sun Belt Conference, have put plenty of points on the board this year. The Panthers are averaging 29 points per game, which ranks 48th, while the Eagles are averaging 32. More importantly, both teams are playing at speedy clips — the Panthers average 25.2 seconds per play, which ranks 52nd, and the Eagles average 23.6 seconds per play, which ranks 20th.
Despite their ability to stuff the scoreboard and play speedily, these are two very different offenses. Georgia State ranks 113th in passing play percentage (42.6%) behind dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger, who ranks 22nd in yards per pass attempt (8.7) and 24th in passing efficiency (158.3). Grainger has added 368 yards and five scores with his legs. Georgia Southern ranks fourth in passing play percentage (64.6%) with quarterback Davis Brin at the helm. Brin ranks 86th in yards per pass attempt (6.5) 76th in passing efficiency (129.1).
These teams both own efficient offenses and inefficient defenses. The Panthers rank 48th offensively in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) 40th in expected points added (EPA) per play. Their defense ranks 83rd in the FEI and 96th in EPA allowed per play. The Eagles rank 76 offensively in the FEI and 59th in EPA per play. Their defense ranks 95th in the FEI and 55th in EPA allowed per play. Both teams own offensive success rates ranked inside the top 50 as well.
So what are we betting on? The books have set the total at a lofty 62.5. Most advanced projection systems like Parker Fleming’s model and the FEI have the total somewhere in the high 50s, but that’s a bit conservative. When these teams met in Atlanta last year with the same head coaches at the helm, they combined to score 74 points. Georgia State hung 41 while Georgia Southern hung 33. They had crossed the 62.5-point threshold before the start of the fourth quarter. Per Pregame, the over has drawn 78% of the cash on 68% of the tickets. Look for history to repeat itself in Statesboro tonight.
Georgia State-Georgia Southern Week 9 Pick: Over 62.5 -110 at Caesars
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