The Iowa State Cyclones will visit the Ohio Bobcats early on Saturday afternoon. My top college football pick for Week 3 is on this game, and I’m excited to watch it on ESPN. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 3 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Iowa State-Ohio odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 3 bet!
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Iowa State-Ohio Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 3
Iowa State-Ohio Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Iowa State: -162 | Ohio: +134
Iowa State -3.5: +100 | Ohio +3.5: -120
Over 42.5: -110 | Under 42.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Iowa State-Ohio Pick & Prediction
The Iowa State Cyclones will visit the Ohio Bobcats on Saturday afternoon in a crucial spot for both teams. Iowa State handled FCS Northern Iowa in Week 1 before struggling against Iowa in Week 2, trailing 20-3 at the start of the fourth quarter before an unconvincing comeback attempt. Ohio lost to San Diego State in Week 0 after star quarterback Kurtis Rourke went down, but the Bobcats bounced back to beat FCS LIU and Florida Atlantic. They’re now home dogs to the Cyclones, but what has Iowa State shown us to warrant that advantage?
The numbers point to two closely matched teams. Through two games against FBS opponents, the Bobcats are averaging only 4.6 yards per play but have given up only 4.2. In their lone FBS contest, the Cyclones averaged 3.9 yards per play and allowed 4.5. Ohio’s numbers are skewed by Rourke’s absence — the star quarterback ranked sixth in passing efficiency (167.7) and fourth in yards per attempt (9.2) last season. He is yet to look like his usual self, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back at home on Saturday, where he earned a 202.9 passing efficiency grade while averaging 11 yards per attempt last year.
Iowa State’s plan coming into the 2023 season wasn’t to start quarterback Rocco Becht, but with Hunter Dekkers gone due to a gambling investigation, the Cyclones had to turn to the young quarterback. Becht has played acceptably in limited action — he bullied FCS Northern Iowa for a 200.7 passing efficiency grade and 8.7 yards per attempt before getting stifled by Iowa for a 94 and 4.6. Fortunately for him, Ohio’s defense is much less stingy than Iowa’s, giving him a much-needed chance to bounce back. Unfortunately, he’ll have to bounce back on the road. His lone road appearance last season saw him score an 80.5 and average 5 yards per attempt.
Home and away splits don’t mean everything in college football, but I suspect they’ll prove particularly meaningful for both quarterbacks on Saturday afternoon. Rourke is one of the best quarterbacks in college football, especially when playing on his home turf, while Becht is inexperienced and looked awful in his solitary road appearance. Rourke helped Ohio go 5-1 against the spread (ATS) at home last season. Iowa State went a pedestrian 2-3 ATS on the road — and 0-2 ATS as a road favorite.
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The spread has actually moved against us slightly since I posted the early week column. Ohio was trading as a 2.5-point home dog but is now available at 3.5, likely due in part to Rourke’s inefficient play on the road last week. Pregame reports that 70% of the tickets and 73% of the handle are on Iowa State, but I’m not convinced that Rourke is cooked or that Becht can get it done outside of Ames. One last point: The Cyclones are 9-9 ATS as road favorites under head coach Matt Campell, while the Bobcats are 5-2 ATS as home dogs under head coach Tim Albin.
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Iowa State-Ohio Week 3 Pick: Ohio +3.5 -120 at FanDuel
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