The Iowa State Cyclones will head into hostile territory to face the No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners this weekend. Saturday’s game won’t be pretty, and you can watch the beatdown live on FS1. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 5 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Iowa State-Oklahoma odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 5 bet!
Iowa State-Oklahoma Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 5
Iowa State-Oklahoma Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Iowa State: +760 | Oklahoma: -1300
Iowa State +19.5: -105 | Oklahoma -19.5: -115
Over 48.5: -108 | Under 48.5: -112
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Iowa State-Oklahoma Pick & Prediction
The No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners will host the Iowa State Cyclones in what should be an absolute blowout. This Iowa State team is awful, but this Oklahoma team looks to be one of the best in college football — at least when it comes to putting points on the board. Oklahoma blew out Arkansas State by 73, beat SMU by 17, blew out Tulsa by 49 and then topped Cincinnati by 14. The Sooners are averaging the third-most points per game (46.8) and the ninth-most points per game at home (50.5).
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The Sooners have a massive advantage on offense and should score at will even against a solid Iowa State defense. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel ranks fifth in passing efficiency (197.2) and 10th in yards per pass attempt (10.4) — far ahead of Iowa State’s Rocco Becht, who ranks 55th (142.4) and 64th (7.5). Gabriel’s efforts have helped Oklahoma rank 14th in yards per play (6.9); Becht and Iowa State rank 82nd (5). Oklahoma’s defense also ranks 13th in yards allowed per play (4.3), also better than 23rd-ranked Iowa State (4.6).
The Cyclones head into Norman as 19.5-point underdogs, but that spread doesn’t reflect how much worse their team is than the Sooners. Last year, Iowa State lost to a worse Sooners team by 14 in Ames, but they at least held them to 4.5 yards per play. But three of their players went in the 2023 NFL Draft, including first-round defensive end Will McDonald IV, and a bad Oklahoma State team led by Alan Bowman just went into Ames and averaged 5.7 yards per play last week. Iowa State’s lone road game this year saw them lose to Ohio, bringing the Cyclones to 4-8 on the road since 2021.
It’ll be difficult for Gabriel and the Sooners to cover a 19.5-point spread any week, but this is a fantastic spot for them to show off their offensive prowess at home. These aren’t last year’s Oklahoma Sooners, and the offense that entered Week 4 ranked a dominant third in the FEI should assert itself on Saturday in Norman. Head coach Brent Venables may be only 4-4 against the spread at home since taking over in 2022, but his Sooners own an average margin of victory of 20 points through that span, enough to cover this spread.
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We locked in Oklahoma as a 19.5-point favorite in the early week column, and the market hasn’t really budged much since then. The betting models I look at that publish after I post that column are split — the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) favors Oklahoma by only 18.3, while Parker Fleming’s model favors Oklahoma by 26.3. Both models have the Sooners scoring more than 33.5 points, which is where FanDuel Sportsbook is now taking action on their team total. For those worried about the Sooner defense, buying the over on that market at -130 is a sharp bet. I already played the spread, but I have since added that team total to my card for enough to secure a half-unit return.
Iowa State-Oklahoma Week 5 Pick: Oklahoma Over 33.5 -130 at FanDuel
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 5. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!
