After finishing the regular season 10-4, the New Mexico State Aggies take on the 8-4 Fresno State Bulldogs as a 3.5-point favorite in a game with a 51.0-point total. Let’s dive into our New Mexico State-Fresno State odds, pick and prediction for this year’s Istela New Mexico Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
Istela New Mexico Bowl Bet: New Mexico State-Fresno State Pick
Istela New Mexico Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
New Mexico St: -180 | Fresno St: +150
New Mexico St -3.5: -110 | Fresno +3.5: -110
Over 51.0: -110 | Under 51.0: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Saturday, Dec. 16 at 4:15 p.m. ET
New Mexico St-Fresno St News & Notes
New Mexico State Absences: WR Trent Hudson, WR PJ Johnson, CB Reggie Akles
New Mexico State Coaching Changes: N/A
Fresno State Absences: QB Logan Fife, CB Cam Lockridge
Fresno State Coaching Changes: N/A
New Mexico State-Fresno State Comparison
| Metric | New Mexico State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 129th | 35th |
| Overall Offense | 43rd | 49th |
| Run Blocking | 83rd | 91st |
| Pass Blocking | 110th | 42nd |
| Pass Rate | 97th | 7th |
| Overall Defense | 92nd | 82nd |
| Run Defense | 75th | 91st |
| Pass Rush | 69th | 79th |
| Coverage | 96th | 69th |
Istela New Mexico Bowl Pick & Prediction
After dropping their conference championship, New Mexico State now finds themselves favored by 3.5 points over Fresno State in a game with a 51 total. Like many New Mexico State games, the total comes in low due to a muted pace. However, with explosive offenses and questionable defenses on both sides, each offense should find success.
Starting with New Mexico State, star signal caller Diego Pavia expects to play in this game after getting knocked out of the title game. Pavia already accounts for 851 rushing yards, while posting elite efficiency as a passer. The second-year quarterback boasts a 61.4% completion percentage for 8.5 yards per attempt, 26 scores, and just eight interceptions.
Fresno State ranks 82nd on defense and has allowed at least 30 points in five of their last six games. This includes a 33-18 loss against bottom-feeder San Diego State in their season finale. With the same idea in mind, New Mexico State has racked up at least 30 points in three of their last four games, despite a slow pace.
As for Fresno State’s offense, the Bulldogs could experience positive regression with extra rest for Mikey Keene. The UCF transfer battled injury at the end of the season, moving in and out of the lineup as the team chased a potential conference title berth. On the year, Keene has solid efficiency metrics, including a 65.6% completion percentage for 6.8 yards per attempt, 20 scores and nine interceptions.
Keene also has the benefit of playing behind an offensive line allowing pressure just 21% of the time. With all four of his top receivers and stud running back Malik Sherrod expected to play, this Bulldogs offense should thrive against New Mexico State’s 92nd ranked defense.
Istela New Mexico Bowl Pick & Prediction and our New Mexico State-Fresno State Bet: over 51 -110 at bet365
