We have some CUSA football this Wednesday night. The Jacksonville State Gamecocks will take on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders tonight, and, while it’s not a great matchup, it is football! Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 6 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Jacksonville State-Middle Tennessee State odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 6 bet!
Jacksonville State-Middle Tennessee State Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 6
Jacksonville State-Middle Tennessee State Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Jacksonville State: +136 | MTSU: -164
Jacksonville State +3.5: -115 | MTSU -3.5: -105
Over 51.5: -110 | Under 51.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Wednesday, Oct. 4 at 8 p.m. ET
Jacksonville State-Middle Tennessee State Pick & Prediction
We’ve got college football on Wednesday! It might be a pair of bad CUSA games, but we’re going to get action on one of them. The Jacksonville State Gamecocks have looked impressive in their first FBS season, and they’re off to a 4-1 start. They needed to score a miraculous comeback and overtime win over lowly Sam Houston State last Thursday, but their ability to come back at all is noteworthy for a CUSA team. I’m plugging my nose and backing them to cover as 4.5-point road dogs against the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders in Murfreesboro.
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Jacksonville State runs a fast-paced but run-heavy offense. They lean on running back Malik Jackson, who is averaging 6.6 yards per rush attempt, and dual-threat quarterback Logan Smothers, who is averaging 4.8. The duo have combined for eight scores. Smothers isn’t a great passer — he has completed only 60.8% of his throws for 6.4 yards per attempt and a passing efficiency grade of 136.9, but he isn’t being asked to pass all that often. Smothers is also yet to throw an interception this year but has tossed five touchdown passes.
Middle Tennessee has not played good football this season, and they’ve struggled to stop mobile quarterbacks. Alabama blew out the Blue Raiders by 49 in Week 1, largely because of Jalen Milroe’s pair of first-quarter rushing scores. They kept things close early against Missouri in Week 2, but while they ended up only losing by four, the Blue Raiders were in a 13-point hole early in the fourth quarter. They then beat up on FCS Murray State before losing consecutive games to Colorado State and Western Kentucky, both of which came by eight points or more. WKU’s Austin Reed ran for 23 yards and a score.
The Blue Raiders are a slight home favorite over the Gamecocks, and I recommend taking the road team to cover. Middle Tennessee is 34-28-3 against the spread as a home favorite under head coach Rick Stockstill, but they are only 1-2-1 against the spread in those situations since last year, and they are just 2-4-1 against the spread at home through that span. Jacksonville State is 3-1-1 against the spread since joining the FBS this year, and the Gamecocks should keep rolling against a defense that struggles to defend mobile quarterbacks.
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I bought Jacksonville State at +4.5 and recommended it to members of OddsShopper Insider Access, and before I could get the early week column up, the number had already fallen to +4. Now it sits at +3.5. Pregame reports mostly even betting splits, but Parker Fleming’s model has Jacksonville State favored by a 4.8-point margin, while the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) projections have Middle Tennessee favored by 6.4. If the truth is somewhere between those numbers, Jacksonville State should cover.
Jacksonville State-Middle Tennessee State Week 6 Pick: Jacksonville State +3.5 -110 at DraftKings
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 6. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!
