The SEC looks more wide open this season than it has in years. The Georgia Bulldogs just don’t look as good with quarterback Carson Beck at the helm, and they’ve nearly lost two SEC games already. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 6 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Kentucky-Georgia odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 6 bet! Also, don’t forget to use your Kentucky-Georgia odds boost at FanDuel Sportsbook!
Kentucky-Georgia Pick, Prediction & FanDuel Boost | College Football Week 6
Kentucky-Georgia FanDuel Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Kentucky: +440 | Georgia: -610
Kentucky +14.5: -110 | Georgia -14.5: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Saturday, Oct. 7 at 7 p.m. ET
Kentucky-Georgia Pick & Prediction
The No. 20 Kentucky Wildcats will play the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs on the road this weekend. They just obliterated a then-ranked Florida team by 19 points in a game that was never close. The Wildcats are now a 14.5-point underdog to the Bulldogs, who have looked like shells of their former selves to open SEC play. Georgia staged a late-game comeback to beat South Carolina by 10 and narrowly bested Auburn by seven last week. Although knocking off a No. 1 team is always difficult, Kentucky’s roster is well-constructed for them to do so.
Check out the rest of our college football picks for Week 6! ➚➚
I’m backing Kentucky to cover the spread because of their solid rushing defense and Georgia quarterback Carson Beck’s inefficient play. Kentucky ranks a dominant sixth in yards allowed per rush attempt (2.4), and it’s not like those numbers are inflated because of cupcake opponents — that’s exactly what they held Florida to last week. Their stingy rushing defense has helped the whole unit rank 20th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). Kentucky also ranks a steady 16th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6), but it’s the rock-solid group up front that will put the pressure on Beck.
If Kentucky can limit the Georgia backfield to slightly less than what the Bulldogs are currently doing — a 59th-ranked 4.2 yards per rush attempt — it’ll be up to Beck and company to move the ball downfield for the Bulldogs. Beck ranks 24th in yards per pass attempt (9.3) and 29th in passing efficiency (162). Those are good numbers, but they’re likely to regress during conference play. For comparison’s sake, Stetson Bennett ranked fifth (9.1) and 11th (161.2) after a full season last year. Bennett had ranked third (10) and fourth (176.7) the year before.
But I’m not just backing the Cats to cover in Athens — I’m also sprinkling on the moneyline here. Beck’s numbers nosedive when you adjust for SEC play — he is averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt and has a passing efficiency grade of 147.3 in those games. And it’s not like he has been playing against good SEC defenses — South Carolina ranks 111th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.6) and Auburn ranks 45th (6.9). Judgment day is coming for this Georgia Bulldogs team, and it might just come in Athens at the hands of Mark Stoops, Liam Coen and Devin Leary.
New to FanDuel? Check out our FanDuel promo code for $200 in bonus bets ➚➚
We locked in Kentucky +14.5 and the moneyline in the early week column at odds of -105 and +490 (16.9%), respectively. The spread is down to -110, and the moneyline has shortened to just +440 (18.5%). The models I trust when handicapping college football both have Kentucky against the spread, too. Parker Fleming’s model lists Kentucky as an 8.1-point dog with a 19.2% chance of winning. The FEI lists Kentucky as a 12.5-point dog with a 19.8% chance of winning. This Georgia offense will have a hard time putting points on the board against Kentucky’s defense, so buy the Cats to cover at +14.5. Don’t put too much on the moneyline at the much shorter number.
Kentucky-Georgia Week 6 Pick: Kentucky +14.5 -110 (+137 Boosted) at FanDuel
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 6. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!
