The Liberty Flames will visit the Jacksonville State Gamecocks as weekday college football begins to pick up. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 7 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Liberty-Jacksonville State odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 7 bet!
Liberty-Jacksonville State Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 7
Liberty-Jacksonville State Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Liberty: -260 | Jacksonville St: +210
Liberty -6.5: -118 | Jacksonville St. +6.5: -104
Over 57.5: -105 | Under 57.5: -115
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Tuesday, Oct. 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Liberty-Jacksonville State Pick & Prediction
We’ve got more mid-week CUSA action in store from Tuesday through Friday, and, while the games certainly aren’t good, it’s better than no football. Tuesday’s contest, between the 5-0 Liberty Flames and the 5-1 Jacksonville State Gamecocks, stands out as a sharp spot to fade a team that has far overperformed, and, at this point, is fair to call lucky. Jacksonville State has staged a pair of second-half comebacks over the last two games, which, while impressive, required some luck. Jacksonville State ranks 14th in luck headed into Week 7.
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The Gamecocks’ luck should run out against the Flames. The books expect it to happen, as Liberty is trading as a 6-point favorite. But there are more factors at play here than just luck — Jacksonville State has relied on a fast-paced, run-heavy offense that Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell has seen before. The Gamecocks are coached by Rich Rodriguez, who spent one season as the assistant head coach and offensive coordinator at Louisiana-Monroe. Chadwell, then the head coach at Coastal Carolina, scored a 53-point home win over ULM that year.
Unlike the rest of Jacksonville State’s CUSA opponents, Liberty will be fully prepared for what’s in store come Tuesday night: lots of designed quarterback runs and plenty of scrambling. Liberty may rank only 69th in yards per rush attempt allowed (4.2), but Chadwell’s slow-paced, run-heavy offensive scheme excels at keeping opposing teams off the field. Liberty ranks 117th in seconds per play (28.9) and 32nd in plays allowed per game (65.2). If the Flames can score early, expect them to milk the clock to keep the surprisingly potent Jacksonville State offense off the field.
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The fact we’ve got college football action on a Tuesday night has thrown some modelers for a loop, so I’m flying a bit blinder than I’m used to with this pick. However, it’s pretty clear that Liberty is the far better team. The Flames rank 63rd in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) while the Gamecocks rank 112th. Liberty is also fifth in points per first half (23.2) while Jacksonville State is 108th (9.4). You can stage a second-half comeback against some teams, but not slow-paced, run-heavy Liberty. The chickens (gamecocks?) will come home to roost on Tuesday. I played Liberty moneyline as part of my five-team, two-pick round-robin, but I’m also buying them to win the first half outright.
Liberty-Jacksonville State Week 7 Pick: Liberty 1H ML -175 at BetMGM
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 7. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!
