The No. 13 LSU Tigers have a tough matchup against the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide on tap this weekend. Brian Kelly’s squad scored an upset win in overtime last season, but the Tigers won that one at home. They now must head into Tuscaloosa, where the Tide are yet to drop an SEC game. Let’s dig into today’s LSU-Alabama odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 10 bet for Saturday! As always, make sure to check out OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages to ensure you get the best deal on the market. Don’t forget to use your 50% profit boosts at both DraftKings and FanDuel!
LSU-Alabama Pick, Prediction & FanDuel Boost for Saturday
LSU-Alabama Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel
LSU: +134 | Alabama: -162
LSU +3: -105 | Alabama -3: -115
Over 61.5: -110 | Under 61.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Saturday, Nov. 4 at 7:45 p.m. ET
LSU-Alabama Pick & Prediction
In what’s by far the biggest game on the Saturday slate, the No. 13 LSU Tigers will visit the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide. LSU comes into this game red-hot on offense, with quarterback Jayden Daniels leading the FBS in yards per pass attempt (11.5) and passing efficiency (204.3). Daniels’ dominance has translated to a first-place ranking for the Tigers in expected points added (EPA) per play.
The Alabama offense has been hit or miss this year, especially when compared to LSU, but there are some causes for optimism. Although Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe ranks tied for second in yards per pass attempt (10.6) and eighth in passing efficiency (175), the Alabama offense ranks just 79th in EPA per play. The Tide rank 39th in points per game (30.6). They average 32.4 points per game in Tuscaloosa as well.
For all that has gone right with the LSU offense, not much has worked for the defense — at least against ranked opponents. They surrendered 45 to Florida State, 55 to Ole Miss and 39 to Missouri. The LSU defense ranks 112th in EPA allowed per play and 84th in points allowed per game (28.9). Importantly, the Tigers are coughing up a monstrous 38.3 points per game on the road this season. All eight of their games have gone over the closing number.
Both of these teams are coming off a bye. For Alabama, that’s good news for the offense — the Tide are 17-13-2 to the over under Nick Saban following a week off. LSU is 1-0 to the over after a bye under Brian Kelly, whose Notre Dame teams went a far less appealing 11-17 to the over after a break. But Kelly had far more defensive talent to work with in South Bend, and his medium-paced LSU offense isn’t conducive to winding the clock while keeping the other team off the field.
The Tide should get whatever they want on offense, especially after a bye week. Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) projects Alabama for 33.2 points. Parker Fleming’s model projects them for only 29.4, but the chance of overtime and LSU’s categorically inept defense make backing Alabama to go over the team total of 32.5 a sharp bet — especially since you can boost it to odds of +125 via FanDuel.
LSU-Alabama Week 10 Pick: Alabama Team Total Over 32.5 -120 (+125 Boosted) at FanDuel
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!
