The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders will take on the undefeated but unranked Liberty Flames this evening. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Tuesday and provide an update before each game. Let’s dig into today’s Middle Tennessee-Liberty odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 8 bet! As always, make sure to check out OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages to ensure you get the best deal on the market.
Middle Tennessee-Liberty Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 8
Middle Tennessee-Liberty Betting Odds
Odds via Bet365
Middle Tennessee: +475 | Liberty: -650
Middle Tennessee +14.5: -110 | Liberty -14.5: -110
Over 57: -110 | Under 57: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Tuesday, Oct. 17 at 7 p.m. ET
Middle Tennessee-Liberty Pick & Prediction
The college football midweek slate kicks off with an absolute banger matchup between the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders and the Liberty Flames. If you can’t read the sarcasm in my voice, this is just one of three midweek games featuring a double-digit spread, and one of the other two just so happens to fall on this disgusting Tuesday card. Still, bad games are even less fun if you don’t have action on them, and what the hell else is there to do on a Tuesday night? That’s what I thought. You can always trust yours truly to have some action down if there are sports to watch.
Middle Tennessee is having a pretty awful season to this point. Longtime head coach Rick Stockstill has gone a flatline 106-106-5 ATS since he came to Murfreesboro in 2006. He is 108-102-6 to the over but is a breakeven 3-3-1 for total bettors this season. The Blue Raiders rank a bad 97th in yards per play (4.9) despite throwing the ball 55.5% of the time with an inefficient Nicholas Vattiato under center. Vattiato is a split-heavy quarterback and, frankly, sucks on the road. His home passing efficiency grade (148.8) plummets (103.8) when he plays in hostile territory.
Liberty, on the other hand, is having an impressive season under new head coach Jamey Chadwell. Chadwell made the short drive up from Conway this year, and he brought his run-heavy, slow-paced scheme with him. Liberty ranks fourth in rushing play percentage (66.3%), a rate that trails only the service academies. This balanced out their efficient offense, which ranks 11th in yards per play (6.8), and helps keep the defense, which ranks 22nd in yards allowed per play (4.8), fresh. Liberty is 4-2 to the under this season, in no small part because of their slow pacing.
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The total for Tuesday’s action ranges sits at 57, which is well over the key number of 55. Since 2000, no final total is a likelier outcome than 55. We’re betting on a slow-paced Chadwell offense to go up early and milk the clock against an inefficient one led by a bad road quarterback. Getting the under 57 at Bet365 or Caesars is a sharp deal, and I suspect this number will tick back down to the 54.5 or 55 it was trading at on Monday.
Middle Tennessee-Liberty Week 8 Pick: Under 57 -110 at Bet365
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 7. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!
