Two unranked SEC teams, the Mississippi State Bulldogs from the West and the South Carolina Gamecocks from the East, will do battle in Columbia on Saturday evening. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 4 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Mississippi State-South Carolina odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 4 bet!
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Mississippi State-South Carolina Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 4
Mississippi State-South Carolina Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Mississippi State: +198 | South Carolina: -245
Mississippi State +6.5: -110 | South Carolina -6.5: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Mississippi State-South Carolina Pick & Prediction
The Mississippi State Bulldogs will visit the South Carolina Gamecocks on Saturday evening. With Mississippi State coming off an absolute beatdown by LSU and South Carolina coming off a solid showing against Georgia, the market lists Shane Beamer’s squad as a 6.5-point home favorite, but that might be an overreaction to what we saw in Week 3. Mississippi State enters Week 4 ranked a solid 33rd in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), above 41st-ranked South Carolina. Both squads rank well below the FBS average in yards per play, with South Carolina at 86th (4.7) and Mississippi State at 101st (4.5), and in yards allowed per play, with 91st (5.9) to 107th (6.4), respectively. With those numbers in mind, I’ve got a same-game teaser of the over and the side for this one.
South Carolina’s offense is entirely one-dimensional. The Gamecocks rank dead last in the FBS in rushing yards per game (25.5). They haven’t been trying to run much — they also rank 130th in rushing play percentage (33.6%) — but that’s a symptom of the problem, not the cause. The Gamecocks lost nearly all their running backs in the offseason and were seen trying out defensive players at the position in the spring. Lead rusher Dakereon Joyner has 75 rushing yards on 28 carries, nearly all of which came against FCS Furman. With virtually no rushing attack, the Gamecocks have leaned on quarterback Spencer Rattler to mixed results. He ranks a solid 40th in passing efficiency through Week 3 at 154, right at his career average of 154.1.
Mississippi State’s offense has moved away from the pass-happy air raid scheme of the Mike Leach era, embracing a more balanced scheme engineered by offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield, who came over from Appalachian State in the offseason. Last year, Satterfield’s offense ranked 25th in points per game (32.8) and 27th in yards per play (6). Longtime air-raid quarterback Will Rogers has struggled in the new scheme, especially last week, but the Bulldogs should get things figured out this weekend. Rogers just had the worst game of his career passing efficiency-wise since his rookie year last week, so it’s safe to expect at least some regression to the mean against a worse team.
Check out our college football picks for Week 4! >>
Let’s break down this same-game teaser. Mississippi State is trading as a 6.5-to-6-point underdog across the market. The total has ticked down from 50 to 48.5 as well. I think Mississippi State can win this game, but the worst-case scenario for them is almost certainly no more than a 10-point loss. With a pass-heavy South Carolina offense lining up against what should be a more efficient Mississippi State offense — and with both teams putting not-so-great defenses on the field — the worst-case for this total is probably the key number of 44. We can tease that down an extra point to pair Mississippi State +10.5 and the over 42.5 for odds of +120 via DraftKings.
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Mississippi State-South Carolina Week 4 Pick: Mississippi State +10.5/Over 42.5 +120 at DraftKings
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