Week 7 has arrived, and with it comes a ton of marquee matchups. One game that jumped out to me was a nighttime clash between one-loss Ole Miss and one-loss LSU. Both of these teams desperately need this win, and it’s a game to absolutely have on your betting radar. Today, we’ll dive into the Ole Miss-LSU odds and dig up a college football expert pick for Saturday. If you need more college football betting advice, check out our guide to college football +EV betting.
Before we dive into which side of this Ole Miss-LSU clash I’m playing, with so many games on Saturday, it’s crucial to try and stay on top of news and line movement as best you can. Capturing some closing line value or being on top of the information can make the difference between winning and losing weeks.
If you’re looking for a way to do that, my Tails by OddsShopper-fueled Discord channels can do just that. We have a great community all helping us to achieve a common goal, which is uncovering value and cashing tickets. Hop on in with the code JAZZRAZ50 for 50% off your first week or month. With that in mind let’s dive into this Ole Miss-LSU battle and break down where the value is.
Ole Miss-LSU Odds & College Football Expert Pick Today
Ole Miss-LSU Odds
Pick & analysis by Ben Rasa. See all his picks here!
Ole Miss: -165 | LSU: +140
Ole Miss -3.5: -105 | LSU +3.5: -115
Over 62.5: -105 | Under 62.5: -115
Odds via BetMGM
Ole Miss-LSU Expert Pick
These are two upper-level SEC teams that both have goals of making the playoffs, and to do that, a win here is probably required. Despite LSU being at home, we have Ole Miss sitting as basically a 3.5-point favorite at all books. Although I may try and search for a rogue 3, I will be laying the points here for Ole Miss on the road.
Let’s start with this Ole Miss team. They sit at 5-1 on the year with a disappointing home loss against Kentucky. They looked much more like themselves last week, going into South Carolina and winning 27-3. This high-powered offense is led by quarterback Jaxson Dart, who already is up to 13 passing touchdowns with three more on the ground.
One key weapon on the outside, Tre Harris, sports a questionable tag, but with the depth of this offense, they can mask it even if he misses. This team averages north of 500 yards per game, which is good enough for second in the entire country, and that will put tremendous pressure on LSU’s defense.
The defense is where Ole Miss really made strides in the offseason, as they aren’t just a high-powered offense anymore. Heading into this matchup, they are allowing a ridiculous nine points per game and less than four yards per play, both good enough for top-10 marks in the country.
Some of this is schedule-related, as they beat up on inferior competition, but this is a talented, deep unit with a ton of transfers infused into what they brought back. One other number that stood out was sack rate, which is another top 10 metric for this defense.
With all that in mind, let’s talk about LSU and how they will look to handle all that Ole Miss brings to the table. The Tigers opened the season with a disappointing loss against USC in a game that was there for the taking. Since then, they beat up on FCS Nicholls State and took down UCLA and South Alabama at home as well. The one other data point is a three-point road win against South Carolina, which further exposed some of the issues.
An interesting tidbit about this LSU offense is they really are a pass-first team right now, with a rush rate around 40%, which is 123rd in the country. The inability to get a rushing attack going hurt them against USC and could create some problems here against this elite defense.
The big difference between these teams is that I have serious questions about this LSU defense. They lost linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to an ACL tear, and the secondary hasn’t been able to hold up despite the front getting a lot of pressure. LSU is 100th is passing yards allowed per game and 107th in passing yards allowed per attempt. Dart and this Ole Miss offense should absolutely have the advantage if he has time to throw.
As I already mentioned, I am a believer in this Ole Miss team on both sides of the ball, and I think they will show it on Saturday night. I cannot stress how hard it is to go into LSU at night and win, but that is certainly factored into this spread, and Dart has experience leading this offense on the road.
The difference in the game will be LSU’s inability to hold up in the secondary while their one-dimensional offensive attack struggles to keep up. I’ll call for Ole Miss to take another step toward the playoff with a big-time road win, and I’ll be laying the points for them to do so.
College Football Expert Pick Today: Ole Miss -3.5 -105 at Caesars
