The No. 18 Oregon State Beavers will play the San Jose State Spartans in San Jose. The Beavers are 16.5-point road favorites. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 1 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Oregon State-SJSU betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 1 bet!
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Oregon State-SJSU Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 1
Oregon State-SJSU Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Oregon State: -720 | San Jose State: +500
Oregon State -16.5: -105 | San Jose State +16.5: -115
Over 54.5: -110 | Under 54.5: -110
Oregon State-SJSU Pick & Prediction
After going out and throttling the Florida Gators in the Las Vegas Bowl, the No. 18 Oregon State Beavers pulled D.J. Uiagalelei out of the transfer portal. Although he struggled with Clemson at points, Uiagalelei fits this offense like a glove. He brings both size and mobility to an Oregon State team that ranked only 121st in passing play percentage (39.1%) last year. Uiagalelei recorded 913 rushing yards and 15 scores across three seasons with the Tigers but struggled to move the ball as a passer, recording an atrocious 108.7 passing efficiency grade in 2021 before improving to 135 in 2022.
Uiagalelei will get to work alongside running back Damien Martinez, who earned Pac-12 Offensive Rookie of the Year honors last year, to form an elite two-man attack. Martinez ran for 982 yards and seven scores on 6.1 yards per carry last season, adding another 61 yards on just four receptions. He helped Oregon State rank a solid 39th in yards per play (5.9). Even though the Beavers struggled to find consistent quarterback play, they still ranked 22nd in average time of possession (31:56), largely because they also ranked 125th in seconds per play (29.3). Head coach Jonathan Smith has zigged where the rest of the Pac-12 has zagged by emphasizing the run and strong defensive play, and it should pay dividends this year.
Oregon State opens the season with a road game against the San Jose State Spartans. SJSU had a tepid 2022 campaign, finishing 7-5 and getting blown out in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by Eastern Michigan. The Spartans got in some early action in Week 0, losing to USC by 56-28. Returning quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, who ranked 50th in passing efficiency at 139.6 last year, completed 55.2% of his passes for 198 yards and three scores against USC’s bad defense. The Spartans ripped off 6 yards per play, up from the 5.5 they averaged last year.
Before USC ran away with the game in the second half, SJSU had kept scoring low by controlling the clock. The Spartans began the game with some slow-paced drives and ended up possessing the ball for 30:42 while taking 27.5 seconds per play. If they adopt a similar game plan against Oregon State, it’d be surprising to see this one go over a relatively lofty total — especially since SJSU has been able to stop the run. The Spartans held USC’s electric offense to only 4.7 yards per rush and ranked eighth in yards allowed per rush last season (3.3).
The play we locked in through the early week column remains on the board: we can still buy the under 54.5 at -110 (52.4%). I fully expect Oregon State to try and control the clock with a two-headed attack on the ground with Martinez and Uiagalelei — only to meet some surprisingly solid resistance from SJSU. While the Beavers should still end up winning, I don’t expect them to run away with this one by a monstrous margin, and I don’t expect the Spartans to do much damage on the offensive end.
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Oregon State-SJSU Week 1 Pick: Under 54.5 -110 at FanDuel
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