The No. 7 Washington Huskies and No. 8 Oregon Ducks will do battle in what’s likely their final meeting as members of the Pac-12. Both teams will join the Big Ten next season. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 7 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Oregon-Washington odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 7 bet!
Oregon-Washington Pick, Prediction & FanDuel Boost | College Football Week 7
Oregon-Washington Betting Odds
Odds via Bet365
Oregon: +125 | Washington: -150
Oregon +2.5: +100 | Washington -2.5: -122
Over 67.5: -110 | Under 67.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Saturday, Oct. 14 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Oregon-Washington Pick & Prediction
The No. 7 Washington Huskies will host the No. 8 Oregon Ducks in a pivotal Pac-12 battle. These teams, both undefeated, rank atop the Pac-12. The Pac-12 is known for cannibalizing its playoff hopefuls, however, and both teams must run a gauntlet that includes the No. 10 USC Trojans, No. 15. Oregon State Beavers, No. 16 Utah Utes and No. 19 Washington State Cougars. Still, this is the toughest test either team has faced this season, and a win would render the winner the likeliest Pac-12 team to make the College Football Playoff.
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But that’s enough monologue about the implications of this game — let’s dive right into the analysis. The visiting Oregon Ducks, who are a 2.5-point underdog, enter as the leaders in expected points added (EPA) across the entire FBS. Washington isn’t far behind in 13th, but Oregon paces them by a margin of .258, which is equivalent to the gap between 13th-ranked Washington and 61st-ranked Marshall. However, other metrics have the Huskies ahead — the Ducks by one spot in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI).
It’s obvious that both of these offenses are good. Oregon quarterback Bo Nix ranks 23rd in yards per pass attempt (9) but fifth in passing efficiency (184.7). Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. leads him in both metrics, clocking in at first (11.2) and third (196.5), respectively, but he is yet to face a defense ranked higher in yards allowed per pass attempt than 79th-place Michigan State (7.7). Three of his other opponents, Arizona (8.5), Cal (9.1) and Boise State (10.5) are bottom-25 units in the metric. Oregon has faced one top-50 team in the metric, Texas Tech (7.1).
Oregon has an edge defensively, especially against the pass. The Ducks rank fourth in both yards allowed per pass attempt (5.2) and EPA allowed per dropback. Meanwhile, Washington ranks 16th (6.1) and 43rd, respectively. One spot where the Huskies have an edge is in the takeaway department — Washington ranks seventh in interceptions per game (1.6) while Oregon ranks just 40th (1). Penix threw a pick on the road against Oregon last season, but Nix kept a clean sheet in that game.
How much will home-field advantage benefit Washington on Saturday? Bo Nix recorded a better passing efficiency score on the road (175.9) than at home (175.6) last year. That trend hasn’t held true this year, but it’s not like Nix has been bad in away games — his home score (192.8) just far outpaces a road score (175.4) that has stayed roughly the same. In contrast, last year, Michael Penix Jr. was better in the metric at home (161.7) than on the road (148.2), and the same is true this year (203.2 to 187.2). Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer is 7-3 ATS in Seattle, while Oregon head coach Dan Lanning is 5-2 ATS on the road.
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Washington’s team total is trading at 35.5 for -104/-122 on FanDuel but is 34.5 for -125/-105 at DraftKings. At Pinnacle, a sharp book, you’ll find it at 34.5 for -116/+100. Getting the under above the key number of 35 is big for us, and I’m pouncing on that price at FanDuel, which we can boost to +123 for the first $25. Although Washington has cleared that number in four of five games thus far, the Huskies are yet to face a real secondary, which the Ducks have.
Washington barely beat this number against Oregon last year, ending the game with 37 points after Oregon coughed up the ball late in their own territory, leading to a 43-yard field goal for Washington. The Huskies stayed under this number in two more of their regular-season games. Further, the Huskies are playing much slower than they did last year — they rank 112th in seconds per play (28.6), a 3.8-second increase over last season, which should help us cash this team total.
Oregon-Washington Week 7 Pick: Washington Under 35.5 -122 (+123 Boosted) at FanDuel
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 7. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!
