After finishing the regular season 10-2, the Penn State Nittany Lions take on the 10-2 Ole Miss Rebels as 4.5-point favorites in a game with a 48.5-point total. Let’s dive into our Ole Miss-Penn State odds, pick and prediction for this year’s Peach Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
Peach Bowl Pick: Ole Miss-Penn State Bet
Peach Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
Ole Miss: +165 | Penn State: -200
Ole Miss +4.5: -110 | Penn State -4.5: -110
Over 48.5: -110 | Under 48.5: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Saturday, Dec. 30 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Ole Miss-Penn State News & Notes
Ole Miss Absences: S Isheem Young, S Demarko Williams, TE Kyirin Heath, TE Michael Trigg, OL Micah Pettus
Ole Miss Coaching Changes: N/A
Penn State Absences: Edge Chop Robinson
Penn State Coaching Changes: OC Mike Yurcich, DC Manny Diaz
Ole Miss-Penn State Comparison
| Metric | Ole Miss | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 11th | 87th |
| Overall Offense | 21st | 27th |
| Run Blocking | 67th | 19th |
| Pass Blocking | 85th | 62nd |
| Pass Rate | 110th | 92nd |
| Overall Defense | 52nd | 4th |
| Run Defense | 72nd | 11th |
| Pass Rush | 41st | 1st |
| Coverage | 52nd | 16th |
Peach Bowl Pick & Prediction
A rare non-playoff game with few opt outs, Penn State takes on Ole Miss as a 4.5 point favorite. The Nittany Lions finished the regular season with just two losses against Ohio State and Michigan, while dismantling the rest of their competition. Meanwhile, Ole Miss also finished 10-2, losing only to Alabama and Georgia, setting up an electric clash of styles here.
Starting with Penn State’s offense, the Nittany Lions thrive through their run game behind Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The pair combined for over 1,500 rushing yards and play behind an elite offensive line, which will have potential top five pick Olu Fashanu active for this game. The team’s biggest concerns on this side of the ball come from a coordinator change and a limited quarterback. Despite an elite recruiting profile, Drew Allar completed just 60.8% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt. However, he did throw 23 touchdowns with just four turnover worthy plays.
Opposite Allar, Ole Miss will field a largely intact defense. This unit ranked 52nd overall, but struggled to defend the run at times. The Ole Miss run defense ranked 72nd int he country and recently allowed 14.1 yards per carry to Georgia’s Kendall Milton and over 5.5 yards per carry to Texas A&M backs. With Penn State’s strength up front, this should be an exploitable matchup in favor of the Nittany Lions.
The Ole Miss offense also projects to field most of their day one roster. The biggest concern comes along the offensive line that has battled injury and finished 85th in pass blocking. However, Jaxson Dart still put together and elite season with a 64.8% completion percentage for 9.3 yards per attempts, 20 scores, and ten turnover worthy plays. Receivers Tre Harris, Dayton Wade, and Jordan Watkins all bested 740 yards receiving and sophomore back Quinshon Judkins hit 1,000 yards rushing for the second straight season. Even with the weapons here, this offense will still have their work cut out for them.
The biggest shocker in the whole game, only Chop Robinson opted out from this defense. That still leaves elite players like edge Isaac Adisa and corner Kalen King in place to star this game. This defense ranked top 15 in most major weapons, but also faced a slew of weak Big Ten offenses. They situationally allowed productions. Kyle McCord and Brendan Sorsby threw for 8.2 and 14.2 yards per attempt. However, games like this were few and far between. An increasingly difficult game to bet, looking at an under could make sense with both teams mostly healthy.
Peach Bowl Pick & Prediction and our Ole Miss-Penn State Bet: under 48.5 (-110) at bet365
