The No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions will visit the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday. It’s been an impressive start for Penn State, albeit against pumpkin opponents, but a disappointing one for Illinois. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 3 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Penn State-Illinois odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 3 bet!
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Penn State-Illinois Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 3
Penn State-Illinois Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Penn State: -650 | Illinois: +460
Penn State -14.5: -110 | Illinois +14.5: -110
Over 48.5: -110 | Under 48.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Penn State-Illinois Pick & Prediction
I used the early week column to write about Illinois’ defense last week before the Kansas game. The Illini responded to my faith in them by surrendering a whopping 34 points and 8.4 yards per play. The Illinois defense that ranked second in the FBS in yards allowed per play (4.4) last year is clearly no more — they rank 101st (6.2) after games against Toledo and Kansas. Saturday’s matchup against the No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions will be disastrous if the Illini can’t find their footing, and head coach Bret Bielema has given us no reason to believe they will.
Bielema arrived in Illinois after the Illini parted ways with their previous head coach, Lovie Smith, following the 2020 season. The Illini had ranked 100th in yards allowed per play (6.3) that season. Bielema helped the Illini rebound to 29th (5.1) and then second (4.4), but that kind of defensive success hasn’t been inevitable for the head coach. In his final year at Arkansas, the Razorbacks ranked 118th in the metric (6.6). The year before, they had ranked 121st (6.7); the year before that, 88th (5.8). The defense peaked at 40th (5.2) in his second year at the helm.
Illinois’ massive defensive regression makes sense — they had a terrible offseason. The Illini lost star cornerback Devon Witherspoon, safety Jartavius Martin and safety Sydney Brown in the first three days of the draft. They also lost their starting running back, Chase Brown, and their starting quarterback, Tommy DeVito, limiting their ability to keep the defense fresh. Their departures have led the Illini offense, which ranked 92nd in yards per play (5), to average just 5.7 in non-conference play with Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska still on the schedule.
The books are asking us whether we think an Illinois team that narrowly beat Toledo and got shut down by Kansas until garbage time can limit Penn State to an implied total of 31.8 points while scoring at least 16.7 on their own. The Nittany Lions averaged 7.2 yards per play against West Virginia and 5.9 against FCS Delaware, the latter performance stemming from a run-heavy second half that featured plenty of backups and developmental players. Penn State went 4-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road last season and was 4-0 as a road favorite.
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I don’t want to buy Penn State over the key number of 14, especially not after what we saw from Illinois in garbage time last week. I also don’t want to buy the over 48.5 in case Penn State is able to wind out the clock with its ground game. Instead, I recommend parlaying teased-down spreads and totals for this game: you can buy Penn State to cover the 9.5 and both teams to go over the 40.5 at odds of -115 (53.5%) at DraftKings. Those who tailed the early week column got it at –110 (52.4%). Penn State has covered the 9.5 in all but three of their games since the start of last season. Illinois’ two games this year have produced an average of 57.5 points as well.
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Penn State-Illinois Week 3 Pick: Penn State -9.5/Over 40.5 -115 at DraftKings
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