After finishing the regular season 7-5, the Bowling Green Falcons take on the 5-8 Minnesota Gophers as 3.5-point underdogs in a game with a 39.5-point total. Let’s dive into our Bowling Green-Minnesota odds, pick and prediction for this year’s Quick Lane Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
Quick Lane Bowl Pick: Bowling Green-Minnesota Bet
Quick Lane Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
Bowling Green: +150 | Minnesota: -180
Bowling Green +3.5: -110 | Minnesota -3.5: -110
Over 39.5: -110 | Under 39.5: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Tuesday, Dec. 26 at 2:00 p.m. ET
Bowling Green-Minnesota News & Notes
Bowling Green Absences: CB Jalen Huskey, RB Ta’Ron Keith, TE Andrew Bench, Edge Cashius Howell
Bowling Green Coaching Changes: N/A
Minnesota Absences: QB Athan Kaliakmanis, RB Bryce Williams, RB Zach Evans
Minnesota Coaching Changes: N/A
Bowling Green-Minnesota Comparison
| Metric | Bowling Green | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 127th | 123rd |
| Overall Offense | 103rd | 68th |
| Run Blocking | 79th | 53rd |
| Pass Blocking | 124th | 67th |
| Pass Rate | 87th | 117th |
| Overall Defense | 29th | 80th |
| Run Defense | 64th | 115th |
| Pass Rush | 19th | 18th |
| Coverage | 13th | 80th |
Quick Lane Bowl Pick & Prediction
Playing up and down for most of the year, Bowling Green reached bowl eligibility by beating the five worst MAC teams but also upsetting Georgia Tech. On the other side, Minnesota reached the post-season on a technicality after winning just five games. With both teams playing slow and run-heavy, this game comes with increased volatility.
Starting with the Bowling Green offense, the Falcons platoon quarterbacks between Camden Orth and Connor Bazelak. Orth comes with more mobility, but both signal callers average 7.1 yards per attempt. The offense has two capable pass catchers in Harold Fannin and Odieu Hiliare, but this matchup doesn’t stand out. Bowling Green did lose running back Ta’Ron Keith to the portal, but Terion Stewart should return with the extra time off. Ultimately, this offense remains hampered by poor quarterback play and an atrocious offensive line that ranks 124th in pass blocking.
On defense, Minnesota actually enters this game without many departures. This team has a top 20 pass rush and received a huge boost with linebacker Cody Lindenburg returning late in the season. Minnesota does rank 115th in run defense, but they play in one of the top rushing conferences in America. Bowling Green should present a far easier matchup for the front seven.
As for Minnesota’s offense, quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis entered the transfer portal, leaving Cole Kramer to start. Minnesota has actually used Kramer as a situational rusher throughout his career, which fits an offense predicated on the run. While the Gophers lost Bryce Williams to injury and Zach Evans to the portal at running back, this team has been able to stand on their depth. Freshman phenom Darius Taylor could return and Jordan Nubin rushed for 535 yards in a part time role this year. As for pass catchers, Daniel Jackson, Corey Crooms, and tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford all provide quality options when Minnesota does drop back to pass.
Bowling Green’s defense also projects to take a step back after losing first team All-MAC corner Jalen Huskey. They also lost edge Cashius Howell, while safety Trent Simms has been out for multiple weeks. This team also played a cupcake schedule, artificially inflating their defensive metrics. This team allowed 27+ points to Liberty, Michigan, Georgia Tech, Toledo, Ohio, and Miami Ohio. With Minnesota playing a low variance style of play, they should be able to out-gun Bowling Green here.
Quick Lane Bowl Pick & Prediction and our Bowling Green-Minnesota Bet: Minnesota -3.5 (-110) at bet365
