After a thrilling regular season, the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs will take on the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide in this year’s SEC championship. The Bulldogs are coming off an undefeated run and are looking for their 30th win in a row. The Tide are coming off a miraculous win over unranked Auburn in the Iron Bowl in which they scored the go-ahead touchdown on fourth and 31. Let’s dive into the SEC championship odds, pick and prediction for Saturday’s Alabama-Georgia game. If you’re hungry for more college football picks, check out our lock for conference championship week or our college football betting tools. Make sure to use your 33% Alabama-Georgia profit boost at DraftKings!
SEC Championship Pick, Prediction & DraftKings Odds Boost for Alabama-Georgia
SEC Championship DraftKings Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Alabama: +170 | Georgia: -205
Alabama +5: -110 Georgia: -5: -110
Over 55: -110 | Under 55: -110
When: Saturday, Dec. 2 at 4 p.m. ET
Alabama-Georgia Pick & Prediction
The books think Georgia will make it 30 wins in a row this weekend, as the Bulldogs are trading as a 5-point favorite on DraftKings. This year was a bit rockier for Georgia than expected, as they played close games against South Carolina, Auburn, Missouri and Georgia Tech. Still, no number of close games could derail their multi-season winning streak.
Georgia’s dominance has corresponded to much luck against the spread. Georgia is just 4-7-1 ATS this year, failing to cover by an average margin of -0.6. That brings the Bulldogs to a breakeven 14-14-2 ATS over the winning streak.
You’ve probably heard the saying that great teams win but good teams cover, so are this year’s Georgia Bulldogs great? They are just eighth in expected points added (EPA) margin and fourth in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). Starting quarterback Carson Beck ranks tied for seventh in yards per pass attempt (9.4) and eighth in passing efficiency (168.2). Most concerningly, Georgia ranks 83rd in average turnover margin (-0.2), which could prove problematic against 21st-ranked Alabama (+0.5).
This year’s Alabama team hasn’t looked that great overall, but the squad got things rolling once conference play picked up. On the year, Alabama ranks 24th in EPA margin and 13th in the FEI. Quarterback Jalen Milroe ranks second in yards per pass attempt (10.6) and third in passing efficiency (179.6). Milroe’s high yards per pass attempt speaks to Alabama’s explosive offense — the Tide are among the best teams in college football at generating explosive plays through the air. Alabama generates 1.9 EPA per game on successful passing plays versus just 1.5 for Georgia.
Alabama’s offense should move the ball with relative ease against a somewhat soft Georgia defense. Georgia’s defense has allowed 1.4 EPA per successful passing plays this year and 5.8 yards per pass attempt. That’s down slightly from last year’s 1.5 and 6.6, but both those data points bake in the Bulldogs’ postseason games, which came against now-NFL quarterbacks. The FEI projects Alabama for 23.4 points, while Parker Fleming’s EPA-based model projects them for 26.7. Take advantage of the Alabama-Georgia profit boost to buy the over on Alabama’s team total of 23.5 points for odds of -135 (-102 boosted!) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
SEC Championship Pick for Alabama-Georgia: Alabama Team Total Over 23.5 -135 (-102 Boosted) at DraftKings
