In a fun battle between two Gulf Coast teams, the No. 24 Tulane Green Wave of New Orleans will host the South Alabama Jaguars of Mobile. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 1 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s South Alabama-Tulane betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 1 bet!
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South Alabama-Tulane Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 1
South Alabama-Tulane Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
South Alabama: +205 | Tulane: -255
South Alabama +6.5: -110 | Tulane -6.5: -110
Over 51.5: -106 | Under 51.5: -114
South Alabama-Tulane Pick & Prediction
I’ll forgive you if you’re still convinced that last year’s performance from the Tulane Green Wave wasn’t a fluke. After a terrible 2021 season, Tulane somehow managed to make it to a New Year’s Six Bowl — which they then won — but that won’t happen again this year. Tulane finished the year ranked sixth in luck. Although they were also 21st in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), I’m very skeptical of their ability to repeat that performance. The Green Wave ranked 90th in 2021 and 62nd in 2020. They’ll get to open the season at home, but they’ll have to face a terrifying South Alabama team that could make some noise early this season.
The South Alabama Jaguars are scary. They lost just two regular-season games last year by a combined five points. They almost knocked off UCLA, who needed a last-second field goal to win and suffered a four-point road loss to the eventual Sun Belt Conference champions, Troy. The Jaguars ended the year ranked only 65th in the FEI but were 51st in yards per play (5.6) and 39th in yards allowed per play (5.2). The offseason went well for them, as they kept quarterback Carter Bradley, who ranked 39th in passing efficiency at 146.7, and running back La’Damian Webb, who tallied 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns on 5.1 yards per carry. South Alabama recorded a +8 in Transfer Assets and Returning Production, primarily by keeping its already solid roster intact.
The Tulane Green Wave were great last season, don’t get me wrong, but they shouldn’t be favored so heavily over South Alabama. Quarterback Michael Pratt ranked 10th in passing efficiency at 161.8, but he won’t have receiving back Tyjae Spears and leading receivers Shae Wyatt and Duece Watts, the three of whom had combined for 1,605 receiving yards and 17 scores. The arrival of transfers Dontae Fleming (Louisiana) and Yulkeith Brown (Texas A&M) should help. New running back Shedro Louis is talented but has only 36 career receptions and caught only nine passes last season. Expect some growing pains for this offense, especially early.
South Alabama’s defense is not one you want to face if you’re making some offensive adjustments. The Jaguars ranked 36th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.8). Defensive back Yam Banks, who recorded six interceptions, 11 passes defended and a touchdown last year, is back to lead the secondary. Tulane played several terrible defenses, like USF, SMU, UMass and USC last year. They played just one team that ranked ahead of South Alabama in yards per pass attempt allowed, and Pratt struggled for just 162 yards and one touchdown in that game, earning a passing efficiency grade of just 135.9.
We locked in a wager on the Jaguars to cover the 6.5 in the early week column. The spread sits right at that number now, but the odds have ticked down from -102 (50.5%) to -110 (52.4%) at FanDuel Sportsbook and most other public books. I expect the Jaguars to cover the spread and possibly pull off the upset, so if you want to get bold and take the Jaguars on the moneyline, feel free. Still, because South Alabama suffered so many close losses last year, I feel more comfortable just laying a unit on them to cover a generous spread — one that they covered in all 12 of their regular-season games last year.
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South Alabama-Tulane Week 1 Pick: South Alabama +6.5 -110 at FanDuel
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