The Southern Miss Golden Eagles and Arkansas State Red Wolves will do battle on Saturday. The loser will punch a one-way ticket to the cellar of the Sun Belt Conference. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 4 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Southern Miss-Arkansas State odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 4 bet!
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Southern Miss-Arkansas State Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 4
Southern Miss-Arkansas State Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Southern Miss: -245 | Arkansas State: +198
Southern Miss -5.5: -114 | Arkansas State +5.5: -106
Over 48.5: -114 | Under 48.5: -106
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Southern Miss-Arkansas State Pick & Prediction
You probably won’t be watching it, but the Southern Miss Golden Eagles will visit the Arkansas State Red Wolves this weekend. If you’ve been paying attention, you should realize just how hilariously bad this Arkansas State team is. They lost 73-0 to Oklahoma in Week 1. They then lost 37-3 to Memphis at home in Week 2. They recovered with a 31-7 win over FCS Stony Brook, who, by the way, gave up more points to FCS Delaware (37) and FCS Rhode Island (35). The Red Wolves rank 126th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) entering Week 4. Led by head coach Butch Jones, the Red Wolves ranked 121st offensively and 133rd defensively in the index.
These offenses are two of the worst in the FBS. They are currently tied for 128th in yards per play (3.5). Southern Miss averaged 5.1 last year and should bounce back somewhat after getting blown out by Florida State and Tulane, but Arkansas State averaged only 4.4 last year with a better quarterback at the helm. This year, the Red Wolves have two quarterbacks with 30-plus pass attempts: JT Shrout, who owns a passing efficiency grade of 76.6 so far, and Jaxon Dailey, who owns an 86.4. The duo have combined for 4.3 yards per attempt, no scores and two interceptions — and yes, that counts their production against FCS Stony Brook.
But let’s not forget that Arkansas State’s opponent, Southern Miss, is also bad. The Golden Eagles have relied on running back Frank Gore Jr. to carry their offense over the last few seasons, which has met with mixed results. Southern Miss may have generated more yards per play last year, but their run-heavy offense kept the ball on the ground 55.1% of the time, forming the basis of an inefficient offense that ranked 96th in points per game (22.1) and 80th in yards per point (14.9). New quarterback Billy Wiles, a former walk-on at Clemson, looked solid against FCS Alcorn State but was completely overmatched by Florida State and Tulane. He has a passing efficiency grade of 112.8 through three games.
The Southern Miss-Arkansas State trends also point to a low-scoring game. Southern Miss is 8-5 to the under as a road team under head coach Will Hall. They are 2-0 to the under as a road favorite. Arkansas State is 8-6 to the under with Jones at the helm, dropping to 5-3 as a home underdog. The Red Wolves are also 11-5 to the under in conference play since Jones’ arrival, while the Golden Eagles are 9-7 to the under in conference play under Hall. These teams combined for 39 points when they met in Hattiesburg last season.
Check out our college football picks for Week 4! >>
I wrote in the early week column that I’m playing the under 49 down to the key number of 47. The 49 is still widely available, so if you were late to the party, you’ve still got a chance to lock this one up. Pregame reports that 78% of the cash has come in on the under but on only 67% of the tickets, an encouraging betting split to see early in the week. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the juice slightly favoring the under for this one as well. This game won’t draw a massive handle for the books, so but do get your action down on it sooner rather than later.
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Southern Miss-Arkansas State Week 4 Pick: Under 49 -110 at DraftKings
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