The South Alabama Jaguars will host the Southern Miss Golden Eagles in an intriguing midweek Sun Belt conference. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Tuesday and provide an update before each game. Let’s dig into today’s Southern Miss-South Alabama odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 8 bet! As always, make sure to check out OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages to ensure you get the best deal on the market.
Southern Miss-South Alabama Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 8
Southern Miss-South Alabama Betting Odds
Odds via Bet365
Southern Miss: +650 | USA: -1000
Southern Miss +18.5: -110 | USA -18.5: -110
Over 51.5: -110 | Under 51.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Tuesday, Oct. 17 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Southern Miss-South Alabama Pick & Prediction
I hope you enjoy midweek football enough to suffer through a snoozer, because if you’re expecting a close game in Mobile on Tuesday night, well, just look at the spread. The South Alabama Jaguars are an 18.5-point favorite over the Southern Miss Golden Eagles for several good reasons. Southern Miss, despite having Sun Belt legend Frank Gore Jr. on the roster, ranks 111th in yards per play (4.6). The defense hasn’t played well, either — the Golden Eagles rank 126th in yards allowed per play (6.7). The books expect a beatdown, and I do, too. Still, I don’t trust South Alabama nearly enough to back them to cover.
These teams have employed similar offensive approaches to varying degrees of success. Both squads are 72nd in seconds per play (26.4). They also aren’t far off in passing play percentage, as Southern Miss ranks 50th (50.7%) while South Alabama ranks 56th (49.7%). We’ve already gone over Southern Miss’ struggles to generate yards per play, but South Alabama has found some success, as the Jaguars rank 49th in the metric (5.6). They have even generated 6.5 yards per play at home. Meanwhile, their defense ranks 35th in yards allowed per play (5).
When these teams met in Hattiesburg last season, they combined for 47 points in a Jaguars victory. They notched 38 in Mobile a season before that in what was then a non-conference game. I don’t put too much stock into raw points per game, but these teams are combining to average only 52. It’s the fact Southern Miss has allowed 39.6 points per game that likely has this total so high. But the teams that racked up 40-plus points against them — Florida State, Arkansas State and Texas State — are either Power 5 teams or incredibly fast-paced Sun Belt schools. Tulane only hung 21 on Southern Miss. Old Dominion scored 17.
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South Alabama head coach Kane Wommack is a defensive mind. The Jaguars may have gone 18-12-1 to the over during his tenure, but they are 7-6-1 to the under at home. The books have started to adjust after South Alabama opened up Sun Belt play by soaring over three straight totals, and now the Jaguars have their highest one of the season. Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles are 4-2 to the over this season, but each of their games against FBS opponents stayed under by 24-plus or went over by 24-plus, depending, as I mentioned earlier, on the pacing. South Alabama will play a sufficiently slower brand of football to keep this one under.
Southern Miss-South Alabama Week 8 Pick: Under 52 -110 at DraftKings
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
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