After finishing the regular season 8-5, the Boise State Broncos take on the 7-5 UCLA as 4.5-point underdogs in a game with a 58.5-point total. Let’s dive into our Boise State-UCLA odds, pick and prediction for this year’s Starco Brand LA Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
Starco Brands LA Bowl Bet: Boise State-UCLA Pick
Starco Brands LA Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
Boise State: +170 | UCLA: -205
Boise State +4.5: -110 | UCLA -4.5: -110
Over 48.5: -110 | Under 48.5: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Saturday, Dec. 16 at 4:37 p.m. ET
Boise State-UCLA News & Notes
Boise State Absences: QB Maddux Madsen, QB Taylen Green, WR Eric McAlister, WR Stefan Cobbs, WR Shea Whiting, WR Chase Penry, C Garrett Curan, Edge Demitri Washington
Boise State Coaching Changes: HC Spencer Danielson
UCLA Absences: QB Dante Moore, WR Kam Brown, TE Carsen Ryan, S William Nimmo, S Kamari Ramsey, CB John Humphrey, Edge Laiatu Latu
UCLA Coaching Changes: N/A
Boise State-UCLA Comparison
| Metric | Boise State | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 98th | 11th |
| Overall Offense | 31st | 72nd |
| Run Blocking | 36th | 26th |
| Pass Blocking | 64th | 121st |
| Pass Rate | 118th | 72nd |
| Overall Defense | 105th | 8th |
| Run Defense | 97th | 14th |
| Pass Rush | 102nd | 1st |
| Coverage | 94th | 12th |
Starco Brands LA Bowl Pick & Prediction
One of the premier games on opening night of bowl season, UCLA takes on Boise State as a 4.5-point favorite in a game with a 48.5 total. The story of this game will come down to opt outs and transfer portal departures. With multiple on both sides, practice adjustments could prove key.
Starting with Boise State, most of their absences come on the offensive side of the ball. Starting quarterback Maddux Madsen suffered a season-ending leg injury, while replacement Taylen Green entered the portal. This leaves third string freshman CJ Tiller to quarterback the offense. Even worse, he will look to lead a group of skill position players missing four receivers.
Even before this game, Boise State had significantly increased their run rate. This does not look like a viable strategy against one of the best defensive lines in the country. UCLA will miss premier edge rusher Laiatu Latu after he declared for the draft. However, this deep unit should have one sole focus due to the inexperience at quarterback on the other side.
As for UCLA, the Bruins will again turn to Ethan Garbers under center after the failed Dante Moore experiment. Garbers actually posted superior efficiency metrics to Moore. The program likely faced internal pressure to play their five-star frosh quarterback right away, but that no longer remains the case. Fortunately for Garbers, UCLA retains the services of two capable backs in TJ Harden and Carson Steele, as well as their two top receivers Logan Loya and J.Michael Sturdivant.
Boise State’s defense has been an absolute sieve all season, ranking outside the top 100 in total defense. For reference, they allowed 27+ points in five of their first seven games. The only two games below this mark occurred against FCS North Dakota and UCF without John Rhys Plumlee. To close the year, Boise State rattled off four straight wins, but each occurred against a backup quarterback.
Starco Brands LA Bowl Pick & Prediction and our best UCLA-Boise State Pick: UCLA -4.5 -110 at bet365
