There’s far more on the line than people realize. Even if you’re only here for our Sun Belt Championship pick, as we go through our Troy-Appalachian State prediction and preview, you’ll come to find the stakes are high.
Conference titles and playoff hopes are on the line as College Football Championship weekend is upon us. Teams are looking to take down their conference crown and for some prove to the committee they belong amongst the final four playoff teams. The Sun Belt conference doesn’t factor into the National Championship picture, but don’t let that fool you as this is a battle between two quality teams in Appalachian State and Troy.
Looking at OddsShopper’s industry-leading college football odds tool, we find Troy sitting as a 6 point favorite at most books, with FanDuel down to 5.5 at -115.
Sun Belt Championship Pick: Troy-Appalachian State Prediction & Preview
I’ll get right into my bet here as I am backing Troy in this spot. Unlike some title games this one isn’t at a neutral field so Troy gets a home game to try and cap their season with a win. They play elite defense starting upfront as they allowed just 3.1 yards per rush attempt, good enough for 10th in the country.
That should force App State to attack thru the air where they won’t find an easy matchup either. Troy is solid at every level, extremely healthy and at home. They also started this year 1-2 and have won 9 straight which is one of the longer stretches in the country.
For Appalachian State it was an 8-4 campaign but includes a current five game win streak. Furthermore they took down undefeated James Madison which is extremely impressive and showed they can move the ball against a top defensive unit. Offensively they are pretty balanced and QB Joey Aguilar is serviceable with some dual threat ability.
My biggest concern for App State isn’t on offense but defensively and specifically their ability to stop the run. They sit outside the Top 100 in rushing defense, and against Troy and their backfield it’s a recipe for disaster. If they are unable to slow down the ground game its going to be an incredibly difficult task for them to keep pace.
One of the more underrated games of the week here as these two teams have proven they can hang with anyone, and both come in riding long win streaks. Each defense has a lot of playmakers, but the biggest difference to me is Troy’s ability to stop the run while App State struggles in the same area.
What am I doing with my Troy-Appalachian State prediction? With the Trojans being at home and having a clear path of attack ill lay the points here and call for them to once again with the Sun Belt Crown.
My Sun Belt Championship Pick: Troy -5.5 -115 (FanDuel)
