The No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers will face the No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday afternoon. Let’s dig into today’s Tennessee-Alabama odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 8 bet! As always, make sure to check out OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages to ensure you get the best deal on the market. Also, don’t forget to take advantage of your 50% profit boost for Tennessee-Alabama at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Tennessee-Alabama Pick, Prediction & FanDuel Boost | College Football Week 8
Tennessee-Alabama Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Tennessee: +260 | Alabama: -330
Tennessee +8.5: -110 | Alabama -8.5: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Tennessee-Alabama Pick & Prediction
I feel professionally obligated to disclose that I am a fan of the No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers. They’ll take on the No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa this weekend, but I have seen this movie before. Yes, last year the Vols scored a stunning home upset win over the Tide, but it almost didn’t happen — a called-back interception, missed Alabama field goal and nearly blocked Tennessee field goal proved deciding. Both of these teams were much better last year, but the Vols have fallen off much further than the Tide this season. Alabama is trading as a nine-point home favorite.
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Let’s just get the quarterback comparison out of the way. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe isn’t perfect, but he has been far better than Joe Milton III to this point. Milroe ranks ninth in passing efficiency (174.7) while adding 139 rushing yards and five scores with his legs. Milton ranks 67th in passing efficiency (133.6) while adding 163 yards and four scores with his legs. The key difference between the two quarterbacks has just been yards per attempt. Milroe averages 10.6 while Milton averages 6.9. Some of that falls on Tennessee’s receiving corps, but with Bru McCoy now injured, that’s a serious problem to consider.
The Tide are just the better team this season, and it’s sharp to capitalize on both Tennessee homerism and last season’s numbers biasing the public. Alabama ranks eighth in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) this year with the 21st-ranked offense and first-ranked defense. Tennessee ranks a close 11th but boasts the 15th-ranked offense and 19th-ranked defense. Both offenses have become a lot more run-dependent than they were before. Tennessee is passing just 44.3% of the time, which ranks 105th, while Alabama is passing 41.4% of the time, which ranks 117th.
I expect this game will come down to which passing offense can move the ball more efficiently because both rushing defenses have allowed less than 3.2 yards per carry. These offenses will sputter if they continue to run at the rate they have run against opponents. Once the passing games open up, I give Alabama the edge because of Milroe’s higher passing efficiency score and the Alabama defense’s high rating in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback. Tennessee got cut up on the road by Graham Mertz earlier this season, and Milroe should produce similar numbers this Saturday.
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I recommended parlaying the Ohio State and Alabama moneylines at FanDuel in the early week column at odds of -101. That number has since ticked down to -105. I’d still buy the parlay at those odds, but in order to take advantage of the boost at FanDuel, I recommend buying them as an 8.5-point favorite. Alabama is trading as a 9.5-point favorite on Pinnacle, a sharp book, and the odds for Alabama to cover the 8.5 are -114. They’re -110 at FanDuel, which you can boost to +137 for the first $25.
Tennessee-Alabama Week 8 Pick: Alabama -8.5 -110 at FanDuel
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 8. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!
