The No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers are on the road against the Florida Gators in a crucial SEC East battle this weekend. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 3 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Tennessee-Florida odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 3 bet! Also, don’t forget to use your 50% profit boost at FanDuel.
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Tennessee-Florida Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 3
Tennessee-Florida Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Tennessee: -235 | Florida: +190
Tennessee -6.5: -110 | Florida +6.5: -110
Over 58.5: -108 | Under 58.5: -112
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Tennessee-Florida Pick & Prediction
In one of the most meaningful Week 3 games, the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers will head into the Swamp to face the Florida Gators. Despite being one of last year’s most explosive and efficient offenses, the Vols haven’t looked the same under new quarterback Joe Milton III. Milton has completed a solid 66.7% of his passes but for a passing efficiency score of only 144.8 on 6.8 yards per attempt. Tennessee’s offense averaged 6.9 yards per play last year but averaged only 5.8 against Virginia and 7 against FCS Austin Peay. Tennessee’s poor performance prompted a player’s only meeting last Sunday.
But although Tennessee’s offense has looked less efficient, the defense has impressed. The Vols held Virginia to just 3 yards per play. Austin Peay averaged 4.5 but was averaging only 3.6 until a pair of garbage-time splash plays went for a combined 78 yards. The Vols now rank 23rd defensively in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), up from the 35th-place showing they recorded last year. Their offense has ticked down from fourth to eighth. Defensive coordinator Tim Banks has his best-ever cast, and the Vols’ defense has been showing out with him at the controls.
Meanwhile, Florida got out to a discouraging start against Utah in Week 1 before beating up FCS McNeese State. The Florida rushing attack, which averaged a pathetic 0.6 yards per attempt against Utah, rebounded to total 327 yards on 6.4 per play last week. Quarterback Graham Mertz seemed to finally get comfortable in the win, completing an impressive 82.4% of his passes for 11.4 yards per attempt. But Billy Napier’s offensive scheme relies on establishing the run to sell pre-snap motion, and doing so will be difficult against a Vols defense that held Virginia to 3.1 yards per rush attempt and Austin Peay to 2.3.
Florida’s defense has looked solid to begin the year. Although the Utes put up 24 points against the Gators, they racked up only 270 yards on 5.1 yards per play. The Gators then held FCS McNeese State to 2.8 yards per play — and six total first downs — last week. Florida’s defense is already up to 31st in the FEI after it ranked a dismal 62nd last year. Despite the fast pace at which the Vols play, I’m buying the under. These teams combined for 71 points last year. I think they’re more than 13 points with better defenses on both sides and both Hendon Hooker and Anthony Richardson in the NFL.
Check out our college football picks for Week 3! >>
I recommended the under 58.5 in the early week column, and the total hasn’t budged since. The price has worsened a minimal amount at FanDuel, moving from -110 (52.4%) to -112 (52.8%), but you more than make up the difference with the 50% profit boost — or you can just play it at another book. Pregame reports that plenty of action has come in one the under, 89% of the tickets and 91% of the cash, but those numbers are probably inaccurate. Let’s fade both offenses and buy the under at this price.
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Tennessee-Florida Week 3 Pick: Under 58.5 -112 at FanDuel
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