All eyes will be on this game come Saturday night. The No. 11 Texas Longhorns and No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide will do battle in Week 2 in a game with serious playoff implications. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 2 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Texas-Alabama odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 2 bet! Also, don’t forget to use your 50% profit boost for Texas-Alabama at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 2. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you– or try it out now!
Texas-Alabama Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 2
Texas-Alabama Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Texas: +245 | Alabama: -310
Texas +7: -104 | Alabama -7: -118
Over 53.5: -110 | Under 53.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Texas-Alabama Pick & Prediction
Perhaps no game means more in Week 2 than this one. The No. 11 Texas Longhorns will visit the No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide one year after nearly beating them in Austin — despite losing starting quarterback Quinn Ewers to an injury partway through the game. Alabama closed as a 21-point road favorite for that game, and the total ended up at 64.5. Alabama failed to cover, winning by a single point, while the two teams easily cashed the under by combining for only 39 points in the Texas heat. This year, Alabama is only a 7-to-7.5-point home favorite, while the total clocks in at 53.5 after opening at 57.5.
Both Texas and Alabama have stingy defenses. The Crimson Tide ranked fourth in yards allowed per play last year (4.5) and are off to a strong start, allowing only 3.3 yards per play to Middle Tennessee State in Week 1. Likewise, the Longhorns ranked 16th (4.8) and gave up just 3.3 yards per play to Rice in Week 1. While shutting down borderline-FCS programs isn’t all that impressive, it’s also worth noting how much both teams ran the ball. The Tide ran 60.6% of the time while Texas ran 50.7% of the time. Gameplans may change against stronger opposition, but the Tide are likely to run at a similar rate with dual-threat quarterback Jalen Milroe under center.
While both Texas and Alabama did plenty of damage on offense in Week 1, one can’t help but wonder how much better those units could’ve looked. Alabama averaged 6.5 yards per play against an MTSU defense that allowed 5.4 last year — even UTSA racked up 7.2 yards per play against them that season. Likewise, Texas averaged only 5.9 yards per play against a Rice defense that allowed 6.5 last year, including 9.3 to USC and 7.2 to UTSA. Ewers and Milroe looked good but not great. Although this year’s total is down by almost 10 points, some downtick was inevitable because of Bryce Young’s departure, and the books may still not have adjusted enough from last year’s far-too-high number.
Some trends point to value on the under as well. Since head coach Steve Sarkisian’s arrival in 2021, Texas is 15-11 (57.7%) to the under and 3-0 to the under as a road underdog. Alabama is 15-14 (51.7%) to the under and 7-8 (53.3%) to the under as a home favorite through that same span, which is a meaningful one to use because Sarkisian had been the program’s offensive coordinator from 2019 to 2020. Although the public may anticipate a high-scoring game in Tuscaloosa, these teams ranked fourth and 11th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index defensively last year, and those units could steal the show again this year.
Check out our college football picks for Week 2! >>
Even the early week column missed out on the 57.5 and 56.5, but we got action down on the 55.5, which is still over the key number of 55 — the most common actual total over the last five seasons. We’ve now dropped below that to 53.5. Playing the under now is a bit dicier. While I personally won’t have any action on the new number, bettors looking to get some skin in the game — or hoping to take advantage of the 50% profit boost at FanDuel — should play the under. You can even buy the 55.5 with the 50% profit boost to get close to what you would’ve gotten early in the early week column, albeit for a limited wager.
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Texas-Alabama Week 2 Pick: Under 53.5 -105 at FanDuel
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