Do you love the Sun Belt as much as I do? I doubt it. I’m coming into this season high on the Texas State Bobcats, especially with regards to their offense, and Week 1 is no exception. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 1 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Texas State-Baylor betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 1 bet!
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Texas State-Baylor Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 1
Texas State-Baylor Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Texas State: +1280 | Baylor: -3500
Texas State +27.5: -108 | Baylor -27.5: -112
Over 59.5: -115 | Under 59.5: -105
Texas State-Baylor Pick & Prediction
Call me a sicko, but I’ll be watching this game on Saturday — I want to see what new Texas State head coach G.J. Kinne has cooked up in Austin. Kinne comes to Texas State after one season at FCS Incarnate Word, a program he brought to the semifinals. Kinne is an exciting, offensive-minded coach who managed to pull both Malik Hornsby (Arkansas) and T.J. Finley (Auburn) from the transfer portal. It’s unclear which of them will start, but both have flashed serious talent. Hornsby is a big, dual-threat quarterback with some limitations as a passer. Finley is even bigger but is more of a pocket passer. Both have struggled with efficiency in their limited snaps.
Fortunately for Hornsby and Finley, Kinne has coached up quarterbacks before. He recruited Lindsey Scott Jr. to Incarnate Word last year, who, across six seasons of action, had recorded a passing efficiency grade of 138.4 — only for him to post a 197.7 with Kinne. While such a turnaround was made all the easier by the FCS-level competition, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either or both quarterbacks take major strides for their new team. Whichever signal-caller starts will get to work with transfer and boundary receiver Beau Corrales, who flashed some big-play ability with North Carolina in 2019 but has struggled to see the field since, along with shifty slot receiver Ashtyn Hawkins, who led the Bobcats with 587 receiving yards last season.
The Baylor Bears were one of the FBS’ unluckiest teams last season and will look to shake off their underwhelming 6-7 season. Quarterback Blake Shapen returns after ranking 57th in passing efficiency with a 137.7. Star running back Richard Reese also returns after breaking out for a 972-rushing yard, 14-touchdown season that could’ve been better if head coach Dave Aranda hadn’t limited his usage down the stretch to keep him healthy. Despite their bad record, the Bears ranked 39th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index last season, ranking 25th on offense and 56th on defense.
The market expects a high-scoring affair in Waco on Saturday, but I think we have a good shot at exceeding the current number — especially now that it’s down from 62.5 on Monday to 59.5 on Thursday. I touted an off-market over 60.5 in the early week column, but we’ve seen some action come in on the under to depress the total. I’m not so sure that action is sharp. Pregame reports 84% of the action has come in on the over on only 71% of the tickets, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this one noses back over 60, perhaps even over 61, before kickoff.
So why are we targeting the over? First, Texas State will run a base nickel defense that it buttressed with support from defensive backs signed via the transfer portal. That will leave it vulnerable to a Baylor team that can run efficiently with Reese. Further, the Bears’ defense struggled against the pass last year, ranking 75th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.4), and they didn’t do much to address the issue. Sophomores will start at both cornerback spots and safety. The team’s leader in interceptions, Christian Morgan, and in passes defended, Lorando Johnson, both left the team in the offseason. Buy the lower number before it gets bid off the board.
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Texas State-Baylor Week 1 Pick & Prediction: Over 59.5 -115 at FanDuel
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