Nothing like cashing another entry; congrats if you tailed our 3x winner from last week! We are back this week with two more plays to jumpstart your Underdog entry. We will look at Penn State’s long trip out west to take on USC for the first time since 2017. We’ll jump to that highly anticipated showdown between Oregon and Ohio State to find more value. It’s a busy weekend all around, so finding value is the best place to start. Here are the top two Underdog Fantasy pick’em predictions for Week 7 in college football.
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Underdog Fantasy CFB Pick’em Predictions Today
Want more CFB pick’em strategy? Check out our other CFB articles and CFB +EV picks, and be sure to explore our guide to Underdog Fantasy!
Drew Allar H/L Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
This is a big trip for 5-0 Penn State as it looks to avoid a massive letdown or simply a moderate upset. This is not a typical trip on the Big Ten schedule, but it will be moving forward — likewise with Oregon. For this game, Drew Allar is charged with throwing for higher than 1.5 passing touchdowns in a game that might not see much offense. The Nittany Lions haven’t left the comfy confines of Beaver Stadium since heading to West Virginia on August 31. That’s four straight home games for Allar and the rest of the Lions offense.
Stokastic’s CFB DFS projections have Allar finishing at 1.29 passing touchdowns, enough to help correlate our play. While he’s been able to clear this number in three games — most impressively against West Virginia — those were mostly cupcake teams. As things slowed down over the past two weeks, we’ve seen Allar do the same, with just one passing touchdown combined in that stretch.
These are quality conference wins against both Illinois and UCLA, but Allar is not the fuel behind the points. Penn State will once again rely on people around him first then ask Allar to help facilitate.
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With three rushing touchdowns and plenty of carries so far, Allar might be a threat on the ground and vulture one of those touchdowns.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Drew Allar Lower Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Dillon Gabriel H/L Than 33.5 Passing Attempts
Last week we successfully backed Oregon’s running back Jordan James, so we felt compelled to return to the Ducks well. This time it’s Dillion Gabriel and focusing in on the passing attempts in what should be an overall lower-scoring game. Gabriel and the Ducks are best served doing two things, both not boding well for him eclipsing 33.5. Oregon has to score first; it is on a ridiculous unbeaten streak when it scores first — especially a touchdown. It also has to incorporate James early and often. The ground game can lead to points, which limits passing attempts.
Gabriel hasn’t looked sharp over the past few weeks either, which may hurt his chances of benefiting from continued pass calls. With three picks in two games, Gabriel has either been reckless or on the wrong side of mistakes around him. Both teams need this win early in the season, and Oregon is still feeling its way around the conference, so there’s a good lean towards the under game total.
That’s where Gabriel might simply not have the volume to get past 33.5 passing attempts. A slower game should benefit Oregon so long as James can stay moving his legs. The game script just doesn’t scream higher here.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Dillon Gabriel Lower Than 33.5 Passing Attempts
