We followed up a 2-0 week with an 0-2 week that saw a role player exceed expectations and a quarterback benched in disgust. Let’s try to do a little better this week with our money on the line. No worries, we already mined fantastic value using OddsShopper’s Underdog Optimizer. Week 3 is full of overreactions as people feel they’ve grasped a team after just two games. We find some nice spots to attack this week, so here are the top CFB Underdog Fantasy pick’em predictions.
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Underdog Fantasy CFB Pick’em Predictions Today
Want more CFB pick’em strategy? Check out our other CFB articles and CFB +EV picks, and be sure to explore our guide to Underdog Fantasy!
Roydell Williams H/L Than 58.5 Rushing Yards
How much do you trust Florida State? That’s the only question that matters around anything Seminoles related. Things are tougher than they appear against Memphis, as Florida State is less than a 7-point favorite. The Tigers are improved and will have sights set on Roydell Williams and his early struggles on the ground. It hasn’t mattered the continent on which he is playing; Williams has been a disappointment in Ireland and Tallahassee. He’s gone under this projection rather convincingly in each of Florida State’s losses, and the Tigers present a tough challenge to solve.
The biggest issue for Williams and the Florida State rushing attack has been playing from behind and a lack of productivity. He didn’t get the chance against Boston College and fluttered against Georgia Tech. D.J. Uiagalelei has been more brutal than inspiring and presents little relief for a run game that’s easily targeted. The team’s leading rusher is barely getting the football because the offense has stalled. That might look a little better this week, but these are deeper issues.
We still have a favorable projection to fade and OddsShopper’s Underdog Optimizer identified market edge. The true odds for this play on Underdog are -128, but we get it at -122, creating a 2.1% EV edge.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Roydell Williams Lower Than 58.5 Rushing Yards
Carson Beck H/L Than 257.5 Passing Yards
The Georgia Bulldogs are inching towards laying 27 on the road this week in Kentucky. While the Wildcats will do everything they can to keep this thing respectable, there’s a decent chance they simply will not be able to. The idea is to get ahead of this projection before any point of absurdity is hit, and the game itself and the cover are too out of reach.
Beck is 1-for-2 in hitting more than 257.5 passing yards despite helping to facilitate two blowout Georgia wins. In hindsight, the Bulldogs didn’t need Beck to throw 33 times in a thrashing of Clemson, but it was the season opener on the national stage — and the Bulldogs showed out. Beck was far more efficient the following week in a blasting of Tennessee Tech.
Expect some drama as Kentucky quarterback Brock Vandagriff makes his first start against his former school. Vandagriff was horrific last week and faces one of the toughest matchups on defense in the country. Beck might not have to do much but sprinkle a couple of throws to Arian Smith and watch the run game do the rest.
It’s hard to bet offensive plays off this mentality, but in college football pick’em there are some avenues. Georgia’s defense is such a mismatch against the Kentucky quarterback and pass protection that Beck might be in game protection mode by the start of the third quarter.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Carson Beck Lower Than 257.5 Passing Touchdowns
