The UTSA Roadrunners and Houston Cougars will square off in what’s expected to be quite the close game — UTSA is currently a 1.5-point road favorite. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 1 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s UTSA-Houston betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 1 bet!
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UTSA-Houston Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 1
UTSA-Houston Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
UTSA: -126 | Houston: +105
UTSA -1.5: -112 | Houston +1.5: -108
Over 59.5: -108 | Under 59.5: -112
UTSA-Houston Pick & Prediction
In one of the more contentious games of Week 1, the UTSA Roadrunners will take on the Houston Cougars. The Roadrunners kept star quarterback Frank Harris this offseason, but the Cougars lost their star quarterback, Clayton Tune, to the Arizona Cardinals. Houston will now turn to transfer Donovan Smith, who ranked 67th in passing efficiency at 133.9 with Texas Tech last season. Smith is a dual-threat quarterback who added seven rushing scores and one receiving score last year, but his skillset may be poorly suited for head coach Dana Holgorsen’s pass-heavy offense. The Cougars ranked 18th in passing play percentage last year at 56.7%.
Houston, a first-year member of the Big 12, had a rough offseason. Per Action Network’s Transfer Asset and Returning Production (TARP) metric, the Cougars had the sixth-worst offseason of the conference at -3.5. The losses of Tune and star receiver Tank Dell were somewhat offset by other additions, especially on defense. Meanwhile, UTSA recorded a -6.5, headlined by the departure of leading receiver Zakhari Franklin, who recorded 1,136 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. The Roadrunners kept their second-leading receiver, Joshua Cephus, who recorded 985 yards and six touchdowns, along with their third-leading receiver, De’Corian Clark, who recorded 741 yards and eight scores.
Cephus, Clark and JUCO transfer Willie McCoy are more than enough weapons for Harris to pull off a road upset against the Cougars. Harris ranked 13th in passing efficiency at 160.7 last year and has improved in the metric every season. He also added 602 yards and nine scores with his legs. The Roadrunners ranked 25th in yards per play (6.1) with him at the helm, slightly worse than the 16th-ranked Cougars (6.4), but their retention of key assets will help them start the year smoothly.
Mobile quarterbacks routinely caused problems for the Cougars last season. Houston opened the year at UTSA last season, and Harris racked up 63 rushing yards and a score on eight attempts, helping the Roadrunners force overtime and cover as 4.5-point underdogs. Later, Kansas’ Jalon Daniels recorded 123 rushing yards and two scores on 12 attempts, while Tulsa’s Braylon Braxton notched 51 yards and a score on 11 attempts. Although the Cougars bolstered their secondary through the portal, they didn’t add much depth to their front seven, so expect Harris to have plenty of chances to gash them for big gains on Saturday.
This pick is my top college football prediction for Week 1. We locked in UTSA at -115 (53.5%) in the early week column, but unfortunately, that number has since been bid off the board. UTSA is still trading as a 1.5-point favorite but their moneyline odds have shortened to -126 (55.8%). You’ll find them all the way down at -140 (58.3%) via DraftKings as well, and the best deal at a major public book looks like the -120 (54.5%) at BetMGM. Buy that number before it disappears into the aether.
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UTSA-Houston Week 1 Pick: UTSA Moneyline -120 at BetMGM
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